Sean Barnard previews Wednesday’s WNBA matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Seattle Storm and provides his best pick.
Closing down tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Connecticut Sun will challenge the Seattle Storm. This is the second matchup between these two teams already this season, with the pair currently in last and second-to-last place in the WNBA standings. Seattle produced an 89-82 win in the first matchup, which marks the lone win from both teams thus far on the season across nine total games played.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Storm enter as a narrow 1.5-point favorite with -125 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun holds +105 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 167.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sun at Storm matchup.
The Connecticut Sun finished last season with the third-worst record in the WNBA at 11-33. They are off to a 0-5 start to this year, suffering losses to the Liberty, the Storm, the Aces twice, and the Fire. Connecticut is 2-3 against the spread thus far, and the game total has gone over in three of the five matchups.
Free agent addition Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, averaging 15.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Aneesah Morrow adds 14.0 points and 11.0 rebounds, while Haliey Van Lith is the lone other scorer to average in double figures with 11.2 points and 3.2 assists per game. Diamond Miller and Aaliyah Edwards each pitch in 9.0+ points per game, while Saniya Rivers, Kennedy Burke, and Charlisse Leger-Walker also play notable roles on the team. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is the lone player on the injury report and will miss tonight’s game due to an ankle sprain.
It is still too early in the season to read too deeply into trends. But through their first five games, the Sun rank 14th in the league in scoring at 80.4 points per game. They also rank last in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 95.4 points per game against Connecticut, which is also the second-worst rate in the league. The Sun rank 13th in defensive rating.
After finishing last season with the seventh-best record at 23-21, the Seattle Storm launched into a rebuild ahead of this season. Top scorers Nneka Ogwumike, Gabby Williams, Skylar Diggins, Erica Wheeler, and Brittney Sykes each left in free agency, leaving Seattle without 82.2% of last year’s scoring production. The Storm are off to a 1-3 start to the season, with their lone victory coming over this Sun team. Their three losses have come against the Valkyries, the Tempo, and the Fever. Seattle has gone 2-2 against the spread, and the game total is 2-2 to the over/under.
Dominique Malonga headlines the production for the Storm, posting averages of 16.0 points and 7.3 rebounds across her first three games played. However, she will remain sidelined tonight due to a concussion. Ezi Magbegor, Taina Mair, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Taylor Thierry also will be sidelined tonight due to injuries. Jade Melbourne adds 13.5 points and a team-high 4.5 assists, while Flau’jae Johnson and Natisha Hiedeman are also averaging in double figures.
The Storm rank dead last in the league in scoring at 80.0 points per game, and rank 14th in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.0 points per game against Seattle, which ranks eighth in the league, and they rank 11th in defensive rating.
The Storm picked up an 89-82 win in the first matchup between these two teams. Seattle covered the narrow 1.5-point spread, and the game total went over the 162.5 line. The lead was never stretched beyond nine points, but the Storm maintained an advantage for 74% of the matchup. Seattle outscored Connecticut 19-7 on the fast break and shot 45% from beyond the three-point arc in this matchup.
Both these teams are still figuring out their identity as a team and have not gotten off to their desired start to the year. But I am backing the Sun to pick up their first win of the season tonight, with this being a matchup they can capitalize on.
The absence of Dominique Malonga is extremely notable. While she did not shine in the opening matchup between these two sides, Malonga is the Storm’s leading scorer and played a vital role in controlling the glass in the previous matchup. The Storm’s approach changes pretty drastically without her on the floor, and Seattle was defeated 89-78 in their first game played without last year’s All-Rookie team member.
These two teams play at an up-tempo pace, and each has some significant defensive concerns. Griner scored 16 points on 11 FGA in the first matchup between these two sides. Expect it to be a clear priority to get her the ball in favorable spots, especially without Malonga on the floor. Griner is not the caliber of talent that was the case a few years ago, but is still capable of providing a jolt of life to an offense in need. The Sun brought her in to help set the tone for this organization, and tonight is a matchup where this will be put on display.
Expect both these teams to continue showing their flaws, but for the Sun to have enough in the tank to pull off the upset tonight. It feels Malonga is still not quite getting the respect from oddsmakers that her talent deserves, and tonight is a matchup where this will be put on display. Connecticut isn’t going to go the length of the season without a win, and back them to capitalize on this favorable opportunity and join the rest of the league with at least one win on their record after tonight.
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