For the New York Knicks, the long wait is over. Nine days ago, New York closed out the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0, to advance to its second consecutive conference finals, and since then, it has rested and waited to find out its opponent. That finally happened on Sunday evening, when the Cleveland Cavaliers ran away with Game 7 against the Detroit Pistons to advance to the conference finals for the first time since 2018 (and the first time in Donovan Mitchell’s career).

Now, on the heels of an epic double-overtime affair in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night, the Eastern Conference Finals is set to begin at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight. Madison Square Garden will surely be packed and roaring for the most highly-anticipated Knicks game in decades; the cheapest seat in the arena is selling for $500.

Both teams will enter the game with good health; OG Anunoby (hamstring) missed the last two games of New York’s conference semifinals triumph, but he’s listed as probable. For the Cavaliers, the only player on the injury report is backup center Larry Nance Jr. (illness), who’s questionable, but Nance hasn’t played competitive minutes in the postseason anyway.

The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-265 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 217.5. Cleveland is +215 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the series opener and offer a prediction.

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks preview, prediction

It wasn’t clean or pretty, but when crunch time came around, the Cavaliers’ main man stepped up. Mitchell kept Cleveland alive in Game 4 by going off for 39 points in the second half alone, tying Eric Floyd’s record for the most points in one half of a playoff game, and he broke Game 7 wide open by scoring 15 points in the third quarter to help the Cavaliers turn their 17-point lead into a 24-point one. Evan Mobley also played some of the best playoff basketball of his career, averaging 17.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game on 53.7% shooting across the final five games of the series. James Harden was inconsistent at best on offense, but he stepped up defensively in Game 5 with three blocks and a steal.

Meanwhile, everything went right for New York in the conference semifinals. Across the Knicks’ seven-game winning streak, Jalen Brunson has averaged 27.3 points per game on 52-43-90 shooting splits, and he arguably hasn’t even been New York’s best player. That honor could also go to Karl-Anthony Towns, who has averaged 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game across that span on 60-47-86 shooting splits while playing some of the best defense in his career. Mikal Bridges, too, was ruthlessly efficient during the conference semifinals while playing excellent defense on Tyrese Maxey, and Miles McBride, who stepped in for Anunoby in Games 3 and 4, closed out the series with a 25-point masterpiece.

Cavaliers at Knicks pick, best bet

Both of these teams can win an NBA title; neither would be in the conference finals if it couldn’t. There are levels to dominance, though; while Cleveland has demonstrated tenacity by outlasting deeply flawed but similarly resilient Toronto Raptors and Pistons teams in Game 7’s, the Knicks have been historically tremendous, posting the best point differential ever through two rounds. They have the best offense and the second-best defense so far these playoffs, while the Cavaliers rank fifth and eighth, respectively. That might be relatively sustainable; after the All-Star break, Cleveland had the fifth-best offense and just the 18th-best defense, and New York ranked 12th on offense and eighth on defense. Notably, only one team has ever won a title with a bottom-half defense.

During the regular season, both teams thrived by taking away the interior. After the trade deadline, they gave up the second- and third-fewest shots, respectively, within five feet, and the Knicks allowed conversion at a slightly lower rate. So far these playoffs, both teams have allowed opponents to get to the rim at a higher rate, in part because they’ve played more aggressive, interior-oriented teams, and the Cavaliers have allowed a lower percentage. The overall advantage in interior play still goes to New York; it has attempted a league-high 32.2 shots per game within five feet, while Cleveland has attempted the third-fewest. The Knicks have scored 8.5 more points in the paint per game than the Cavaliers have while giving up 6.0 fewer, and while their friendly matchups and Cleveland’s unfriendly ones overstate their advantage, they’re still the safer bet to dominate in the interior.

The Cavaliers are a decent rebounding team because of their double-big starting lineup, ranking 10th in total rebounding percentage after the trade deadline, and they won the rebounding battle in the first round against Toronto. However, New York has been even better, ranking fifth in that stat during the regular season and first by far so far these playoffs, and it has two of the most dominant individual glass-cleaners in the sport in Towns (who’s finished second in rebounds per game in each of the past two seasons) and Mitchell Robinson, who led the league in offensive rebounds per 36 minutes this season. Additionally, the Knicks have been far better in transition on both sides of the ball these playoffs, as Cleveland has been the second-most turnover-prone team. Towns will need to stay out of foul trouble against two of the best contact artists in the game (Harden and Mitchell), but the same applies for Mobley against Brunson.

Three-point shooting will be paramount in this series. Neither team has missed much these playoffs, as New York ranks first in effective field goal percentage and the Cavaliers fourth, but during the regular season, Cleveland was the slightly more efficient team. There’s reason to believe that the Cavaliers could have the shooting edge; while neither team generated many wide-open threes in the first two rounds, Cleveland attempted 2.8 more per game and shot a lower percentage, so it could be more due to benefit from shooting luck normalization. Additionally, it also allowed fewer wide-open looks, though that’s partially a function of the fact that neither of their opponents has been a perimeter-oriented team, and to boot, the Knicks have contested more triples. The Cavaliers could have more of an advantage if Jaylon Tyson, who ranked second in the league in three-point percentage over expectation during the regular season, plays more minutes, but he’s fallen out of the rotation, so I’ll call it a wash.

New York probably isn’t a historic juggernaut like its playoff performance has suggested; historic juggernauts don’t go 53-29 during the regular season and suffer a string of nine losses in 11 games in the middle of January. At some point, the Knicks’ shooters will cool down after shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc across the last seven games, and Cleveland will clean up its turnovers eventually. I just can’t bet against New York right now, and I don’t necessarily believe in rust. The Knicks will come out hot at a rocking Madison Square Garden and keep just enough momentum to hold on.

Best bet: New York Knicks Wire to Wire Winner (+150)