Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Detroit Tigers and the New York Mets.
The United States might’ve lost the World Baseball Classic after dropping the final against Venezuela, but the future is bright, both for the team and the pitcher who started that contest. Nolan McLean has built on his extremely strong finish to his 2025 campaign with a hot start to 2026 that could put him in Cy Young Award contention if the New York Mets turn their disastrous season around.
The Mets are starting to do just that, winning each of the first two games of a series against the Detroit Tigers, and they’ll have the opportunity to go for their first sweep of the season at 1:10 p.m. ET.
McLean will start the series finale for New York, while Detroit will counter him with Keider Montero.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Tigers enter this afternoon’s matchup in disastrous form, having lost seven of their last eight games in what has been a poor season for the entire AL Central. In that division, only the Cleveland Guardians are above .500, with Detroit, the Minnesota Twins, and the Kansas City Royals all four games behind Cleveland at 19-24, though the Tigers have gotten unlucky, given that their run differential is akin to that of a 21-22 team. That slight decline has mostly been driven by Detroit’s offense; while its rotation and bullpen have performed similarly in 2026 as in 2025 and should improve once Tarik Skubal returns from his elbow surgery, its OPS has dropped by 16 points relative to last season. Rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle has played like an All-Star, and left fielder Riley Greene has improved his batting average dramatically while cutting down on strikeouts, but 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson has been horrendous. The Tigers also haven’t gotten anything from the back of the order.
The Mets, meanwhile, are somehow the team with momentum. They’ve won seven of their last 11 games to snap a disastrous 3-17 run, and Carlos Mendoza’s job looks more safe by the day. Like Detroit, New York has also gotten slightly unlucky, as its run differential is equivalent to that of a team one game better. The Mets’ pitching has actually gotten better; after finishing 18th and 15th in starter and bullpen ERA, respectively, last season, New York ranks in the league’s top 10 in both of those splits despite losing All-Star closer Edwin Díaz and replacing him with Devin Williams, who’s pitched to a 5.27 ERA. The issue is the Mets’ offense; after finishing sixth in OPS last season, it’s dead last so far, as offseason signing Bo Bichette has just a .224/.272/.288 slash line, and 35-year-old Marcus Semien hasn’t been much better.
Thankfully for the Tigers, they’ll have one of their strongest pitchers on the mound, as Montero sports just a 3.18 ERA and has given up just two runs in 12.2 innings across his last two starts. While it’s his career-best season by far — his previous lowest ERA was 4.37 in 2025 — the fact that he’s still just 25 years old suggests that his improvement is sustainable. Advanced stats mostly back up Montero’s strong surface-level numbers; he ranks in the 89th percentile in pitching run value and the 73rd in expected ERA, in part because of his tremendous control (a 92nd percentile walk rate). However, the Venezuelan still has plenty of flaws, as he has just a fifth-percentile chase rate and 13th-percentile whiff rate to go along with a bottom-tertile average exit velocity, barrel rate, ground ball rate, and hard-hit rate. While New York chases a ton, it does make frequent contact and even ranks in the league’s top seven in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, so hit location is important. Given his team’s sub-par defense, Montero has gotten a bit lucky, allowing just a .235 batting average on balls in play. With some good fortune, the Mets could impart some damage, especially since Montero has been slightly worse on the road throughout his career.
He’ll have the tough test of out-dueling McLean. Even after giving up three earned runs in four innings in his first start of May — a reasonable outing for many other pitchers — McLean returned to ace-level form last Friday, giving up just three hits and one earned run across six innings to drop his season ERA to 2.78. Advanced numbers suggest that he should be even better; he ranks in the 96th percentile in pitching run value and the 94th percentile in expected ERA. Unlike Montero, his elite surface-level numbers don’t come with a soft underbelly: the only Statcast categories in which he ranks below the league median are extension and chase rate. While he could issue a few more walks than normal against a Detroit team that has been extremely disciplined at the plate this season, his ability to generate soft contact should make him a difficult matchup for the Tigers, who have had a high barrel rate despite their relatively stagnant offense. The splits could also work in McLean’s favor; he’s had a sub-two ERA in his first eight career starts at home, while Detroit has been significantly worse on the road.
I don’t think New York will necessarily have it easy, as Montero is a good pitcher and the Mets have a deeply flawed offense. However, I just believe in McLean more, and his strengths align more with the Tigers’ than Montero’s do with New York’s.
McLean has recorded seven or fewer strikeouts in each of his past three starts, but for the season, he’s still punched out eight or more batters on four separate occasions. Detroit has struck out an above-average number of times this season after finishing fifth in that stat in 2025. Plus, the Mets’ bullpen could be somewhat taxed after pitching 5.1 innings yesterday, so Mendoza might rely on on McLean to pitch into the seventh.
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