After a miserable start to the season, the Boston Red Sox might not be all the way back, but the season is long, and especially in the weak American League, an eventual playoff berth is not out of the question. In fact, if the season ended today, the Red Sox would only be two games out of a postseason spot, with six teams within two and a half games of the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, who are tied for the third Wild Card position right now.

At 7:40 p.m. ET tonight, Boston will play another team in that morass of mediocrity when it faces the Kansas City Royals in the second game of a three-game road set. After winning the series opener last night, a win tonight would secure just the second series victory in Chad Tracy’s tenure as interim manager.

For the middle game of the series, the Red Sox will send free agency signing Ranger Suárez to the rubber and the Royals will turn to Bailey Falter. Falter will serve as the opener of what will presumably be a bullpen game, with regular starter Kris Bubic on the injured list.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview

The real issue this season has been Boston’s offense. Besides Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras, who have each posted an OPS north of .800 so far, many of the Red Sox’s critical hitters have taken a step back, and the team has dropped from ninth in OPS in 2025 to 28th so far this season. In particular, Boston’s corner situation has been atrocious, as third baseman Caleb Durbin and left fielder Jarren Duran are both hitting well below the Mendoza Line. Still, though, there are a few reasons for optimism; every starter besides Brayan Bello and the currently-injured Garrett Crochet have been fantastic, and their bullpen — led by the ageless Aroldis Chapman — ranks third in the league in ERA. Once Anthony and Crochet return from their injuries, the Red Sox should start picking up some wins, and their 21-26 Pythagorean record suggests that they should be one game better than they have, as is.

Kansas City has had lots of runs this season. The Royals went on a run of nine losses in 10 games in the middle of April, followed it up with a stretch of 11 wins in 15 games, and have since lost seven of their last eight despite playing a couple of mediocre opponents in that span. Their offense has been much the same as it was in 2025, when it barely missed the playoffs at 82-80, but their pitching has fallen off, with their bullpen dropping from seventh in ERA last season to 19th so far in 2026. Among Kansas City’s seven relievers with at least 15 innings pitched this season, only Daniel Lynch IV and Nick Mears have a sub-3 ERA, and I’d expect both to feature at some point tonight. Like Boston, the Royals’ Pythagorean record (21-27) is one game better than their actual mark.

Suárez should set the Red Sox up in a strong position to succeed. The southpaw, who joined from the Philadelphia Phillies over the summer, has given up zero earned runs in five of his last six starts and is currently riding a 17.1-inning scoreless run, in which he’s allowed just eight hits and three walks while striking out 21. Advanced stats mostly back up his strong resume: he ranks in the 97th percentile in pitching run value and above the league median in every Statcast category besides fastball velocity, whiff rate, and ground ball rate. His struggles to produce swing-and-misses could be a problem against Kansas City, which has one of the best bat-to-ball repertoires in the league and chases at a slightly below-average rate, but his ability to induce soft contact should help neutralize an offense that ranks ninth in barrel rate, fourth in hard-hit rate, and sixth in average exit velocity. Suárez should have the overall splits advantage; he’s been far better on the road than at home throughout his career because he spent his first eight seasons at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and while the Royals have been better at home, they’ve been worse against lefties.

The main question is whether Boston’s offense can get anything going against Kansas City’s bullpen. The Red Sox would probably prefer it if Falter stays in the game longer, given that he’s pitched to just a 10.13 ERA in his first 5.1 innings, and he’s never had better than a 3.86 ERA in any of his professional seasons. Given that he’ll be pitching on two nights’ rest after providing two innings of one-run ball on Saturday, I’d expect two innings from him again tonight, but as a former starter, he has the capacity to go longer if need be. Falter is a great matchup for Boston; in his last full season as a starter, he ranked below the league median in every Statcast category except for extension (and in the bottom quintile in nine separate stats). In general, Royals pitchers have been prone to giving up hard hits, and they’ve done a bad job inducing chases or whiffs, mitigating two of the Red Sox’s biggest weaknesses. The splits are mixed; Kansas City has pitched better at home, especially since the start of May, but Boston has hit better on the road.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet

Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-131)

The Royals have gotten somewhat unlucky that their power hasn’t resulted in more production, and they’ll have their two best relievers available behind Falter, but Suárez’s damage control and elite recent form is enough for me to favor the Red Sox in the end.

Contreras hasn’t necessarily hit for average as of late, hitting just .188 across his last 10 games, but when he connects, good things tend to happen. He’s had one extra base hit in four of his last five games (two doubles and two homers), and Kansas City’s barrel-prone pitching staff and Kauffman Stadium’s cavernous dimensions make it a double-friendly venue.