Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins.
Before you ask — I don’t really know, either.
According to the Twitter account of long-time Miami Herald writer Barry Jackson, the Marlins might simply be trying something unique to boost attendance numbers. However, regardless of rationale, we have a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch on a Tuesday for the middle game of this series between Miami and Atlanta. What a time to be alive.
Let’s preview this NL East battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
After getting spanked 12-0 in yesterday’s series opener, the Braves will look to bounce back with Martin Perez taking the mound. The veteran left-hander is sort of the poster child for how inexplicably good Atlanta’s been to start the season — despite numerous injuries to several key players. Across nine appearances and 36.0 innings, Perez is in possession of a 2.25 ERA. However, as you might expect, the underlying stats paint a slightly different picture. The soft-tossing 35-year-old has benefitted greatly from a microscopic .200 opponent BABIP and a gargantuan 88.8% strand rate. In fact, Perez sports a hilarious .059 BABIP when pitching with RISP so far in 2026. That won’t just regress. That’ll regress a lot. It feels like the Braves know this, too. Perez hasn’t made a start since May 6, when he allowed two earned runs over 5.2 innings against the Mariners. Since then, he’s made two scoreless one-inning showings out of the bullpen.
With all that said, it’s not like the Marlins are the 1927 Yankees. Perez could easily “craft” his way through this lineup. Miami enters play on Tuesday with an NL-low .369 expected slugging percentage. The team also ranks 28th in MLB in both barrel rate (6.4%) and expected wOBA (.306). Conversely, the Braves murder baseballs for a living. At least that’s what the club’s league-leading .395 expected wOBA on batted ball events suggests. Atlanta currently leads the National League in batting average (.263) and ISO (.176). Generally speaking, that’s a difficult combination to pull off. The socks and sandals of baseball stats, if you will.
It’ll be up to Braxton Garrett to try and slow Atlanta down, and remember, this is also a lineup that should have Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of it for the first time since May 2. Garrett made his first MLB start of the season last Thursday against the Twins — it did not go well. The former seventh-overall pick didn’t even make it out of the second inning, as Garrett gave up four hits, five walks and five earned runs. Gross. It’s a microcosm of the left-hander’s career, as injuries and underwhelming performance have limited a man who was once a top prospect in the Marlins’ system. At least Ozzie Albies will be happy to see Garrett back at the major league level. In six plate appearances against the southpaw, Albies has four hits and a walk. That’s good for a 2.033 OPS in a very limited sample.
The Braves are an MLB-best 16-8 on the road this season. I might not trust Perez, but they’re the better team, and their offense should put up some crooked numbers against Garrett.
Take the BvP stats with a grain of salt. The point is Albies hits left-handed pitching. He always has. In 2026, the switch-hitter is slashing .308/.329/.513 with a 132 wRC+ within the split.
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