Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs took a tough loss in Game 4, leading by eight points in the fourth quarter, before Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves took control. It was San Antonio’s third loss of the postseason, and two of them came without Victor Wembanyama on the floor for the majority of the game — he was concussed in Game 2 against Portland and ejected on Sunday for elbowing Naz Reid.

Now the Spurs return home for a critical Game 5, and will have Wembanyama returning to the lineup. It sets up a terrific bounce-back spot for San Antonio, which has been rolling off a loss, dating back to mid-January. Since losing at Oklahoma City on January 13, the Spurs are a perfect 10-0 following their previous 10 losses. Even more impressive, the Spurs are also 10-0 ATS in those games.

That trend has been strong in a limited sample in the postseason, beating the Trail Blazers by 12 in Game 3 and then these Wolves by a whopping 38-points in Game 2. I’ll continue to back San Antonio’s strong play off a loss, but with a bit of a twist. Rather than laying double digits against the scrappy Timberwolves, I’m looking to the 1st Quarter/Full Game double result option under “Game Lines” on DraftKings Sportsbook.

I expect Wemby and the Spurs to come out strong at home off a loss, as they did after losing Game 1 — which resulted in a seven-point lead after the first quarter of an eventual 38-point victory. Backing the Spurs to win the quarter and go on to win the game is available at -135, and is my top pick for Game 5.

NBA Pick: 1st Quarter/Moneyline: SA Spurs (-135)

For a player prop angle, Im looking to Dylan Harper. This would’ve been the case regardless of the injury report for San Antonio, but now that we know De’Aaron Fox is questionable with an ankle injury, I like Harper’s props even more. If Fox is sidelined or limited, Harper would see a massive boost. But even with Fox in the lineup, the No. 2 overall pick has been very impressive in the postseason.

The rookie has scored in double figures in six of the Spurs’ nine playoff games thus far, and is coming off a spectacular Game 4. Harper went for 24 points in 27 minutes last time out, and also posted big numbers when he scored 18 in Game 1 of this series, 17 in the close out game against Portland and 27 points in the bounce-back Game 3 win over the Blazers.

I’m backing Harper to go over his standard point prop of 12+ for the game, but also making some smaller wagers to ladder him all the way up to 20+ points.

NBA Pick: Dylan Harper 12+ Points (-115)

NBA Pick: Dylan Harper 15+ Points (+200)

NBA Pick: Dylan Harper 20+ Points (+650)