Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his Game 4 prediction and pick between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, May 11.
You know what they say. The series doesn’t start until a road team wins a game. The Pistons defended home court, taking a 2-0 series lead, and the Cavaliers won Game 3 in Cleveland. Game 4 is a pivotal game between these Eastern Conference foes.
Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite and -166 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Detroit is +140 with the over/under set at 213.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for Game 4 between the Pistons and Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers were just as good on the road as they were at home during the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. Cleveland has lost every road game and won every home game. The team looks like two different units depending on where it plays.
This isn’t sustainable for a team with championship aspirations, but it at least gives the fanbase some confidence heading into Game 4. The Cavaliers are home, winning all five home games thus far by a total of 47 points. That includes three double-digit wins, all of which were against the Raptors.
A lot went well for Cleveland in Game 3, but Donovan Mitchell’s 35 points and the defense on Cade Cunningham were the two most outstanding aspects. Mitchell scored 31 in Game 2, but it was on 45.8% shooting. He shot 54.2% from the field in Game 3 despite shooting just 2-8 from three. Cunningham scored 27 points, but he shot 10-27 with eight turnovers and five personal fouls. Cleveland won’t stop Cunningham entirely, but forcing bad shots, turnovers and fouls is critical.
Even with Cunningham’s underwhelming box score, he was still a plus-six for the game. He provides enough value on the floor, that the best way to beat the Pistons is to keep him on the bench. Daniss Jenkins, the backup point guard, was a minus-28 in 18 minutes in Game 3. Every minute that Cunningham is on the bench is an opportunity for the Cavaliers to take advantage.
The Pistons are the better team. Even with some of the postseason struggles, there’s an entire regular season of data to prove this. That said, the playoffs are different, hence why the Cavaliers haven’t won a road game yet.
Playing at home makes all the difference, and it’ll be Cleveland winning Game 4 to even the series at 2-2. The -166 moneyline is respectable, but there’s more juice at the -3.5-point spread.
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