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Major League Baseball has a full Saturday of action on the schedule with all 30 teams on the schedule coming into the day. There are a few weird weather spots, but there are also a few places that look like they’ll be set up well for some exciting offense. Let’s run through the options and grab a few home run props that have a good chance to hit this Saturday.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
I spotlighted Liam Hicks and Pete Crow-Amstrong in my Grand Slam Payout Picks for the day, so I like their home run props, but here are three more of my home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday: Zach Cole, Juan Soto and Jackson Merrill.
The Astros smashed four homers in their first game of the series at Great American Ball Park, and the weather looks homer-friendly on Saturday afternoon as well. The temps are forecast to be in the 70s with about a 10 mph wind blowing out. Zach Cole got in on the fun with his second homer of the season in the ninth inning off Tony Santillan last night.
Cole hit four homers in 15 games last year in the majors after hitting 19 homers in 97 minor league contests. He started this season in Triple-A, where he suffered a broken toe on his right foot after being hit by a pitch. He did hit two homers in his nine minor league games before his promotion on May 4. He homered in his first game back and went yard as a pinch hitter Friday. He had a 48.1% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate in his limited time in 2025 and has a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 28.6% barrel rate this season.
Cole has plenty of power potential coming into Saturday’s matchup against fellow young star Chase Burns. Burns has been very good for the Reds this season with a 2.20 ERA and 3.42 FIP. However, he has given up five homers in his seven starts, and lefties like Cole have hit four of those homers with a .238 average and .338 wOBA against Burns. Even though Burns probably won’t give up a lot of runs, if he makes a mistake against Cole, the recent call-up could deliver on his long-shot odds this Saturday afternoon.
Soto and the Mets are at hitter-friendly Chase Field this weekend, and they’ll get a great matchup against Merrill Kelly. The D-Backs’ pitcher has scuffled to a 9.95 ERA in his first four starts this season, giving up six home runs along with 15 walks and 29 hits in just 19 innings. In his only start at home, he gave up 10 hits, eight runs and three homers in just 4 1/3 innings. Lefties have done most of the damage against him, hitting five of the six homers and posting a .396 batting average, .875 SLG, and a .567 wOBA.
While Soto was a popular option in Friday’s home run props, he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. He had been on a nice roll before that though, with three homers in his previous nine games while going 10-for-35 (.286) with a 63.3% hard-hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate. He didn’t get any loud contact on Friday, but with such a great matchup against Merrill, he’s a strong option in Saturday’s home run props. His most recent homer was on Wednesday in Denver:
In one of the late games, the Padres host the Cardinals at Petco Park. They’ll take on righty Dustin May, who they should know well from his time with the Dodgers. May is 3-3 in his seven starts this season with a 5.15 ERA and 3.18 FIP. He has a 1.53 WHIP and has allowed a 45.8% hard-hit rate with three home runs. The environment should be favorable, especially for lefties like Merrill with the wind out to right and temps over 65 degrees. Lefties have also hit all three of the homers against May this year, with a .370 average and .429 wOBA.
Merrill has four homers on the season, and all four of them have come against righties like May. He has been finding his groove lately, going 10-for-28 (.357) over his last seven games with two doubles and a home run. He has a 57.1% hard-hit rate during that span and has multiple hard-hit batted ball events in five of those seven contests. He only has one barrel, but he’s hitting the ball hard.
Merrill should be in a good spot against May and will look to continue his hot start to the month this Saturday night at Petco Park.
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