The Detroit Tigers are visiting the Boston Red Sox on Friday, with first pitch set for 7:15 p.m. ET/6:15 p.m. CT. Casey Mize will take the bump for the Tigers, facing off against Red Sox lefty Ranger Suárez at Fenway Park. Looking at the odds, lines and Mize’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the former No. 1 overall pick could perform in his fourth outing of the season.

Casey Mize Strikeouts Prop

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Mize’s strikeouts thrown line set at 4.5 for Friday’s contest against the Red Sox.

Through three starts this season, Mize is 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 0.4 WAR. He opened 2026 with a bang, allowing just four hits, two walks and one run in 6.0 innings against the Diamondbacks on March 31, racking up nine strikeouts along the way. Mize took a step back on April 6, however, when he gave up seven hits, three walks and five runs with four strikeouts in 4.1 innings of work. The righty bounced back on April 11, lasting 5.2 innings while giving up six hits, one walk and one run. He also got credit for his first win of the season, on top of recording five strikeouts.

Mize enjoyed a late breakout campaign in 2025, making his first All-Star appearance seven years after the Tigers took him No. 1 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Tommy John surgery cost Mize most of 2022 and all of 2023, and he was barely above replacement level in 2024. Last season, Mize went 14-6 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.7 WAR, approaching the potential he showed in 2021.

Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Mize is projected to go 8-8 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 120 strikeouts across 24 starts and 133.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 2.2 projected fWAR ranks No. 59 among MLB starters, while his projected 7.96 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 136.

Casey Mize picks, predictions

Mize has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in two of his three appearances this season. He also achieved the feat in his last four outings in the 2025 regular season and one of his two starts in the 2025 postseason. Dating back to the start of last season, Mize has cleared 4.5 strikeouts 18 times in 33 chances. When he lasts at least 5.0 innings, that improves to a 16-for-24 clip. Since Mize has lasted at least into the fifth inning all three times out so far this season, I think he can give himself that runway again on Friday. Boston has gone four straight games without chasing a pitcher off the mound before the end of the fifth frame, after all.

It’s also worth noting that the last time Mize met the Red Sox, he racked up eight strikeouts in a two-run, 6.2-inning performance at Fenway Park. This isn’t the exact same Boston lineup that he faced last September, but two-thirds of the starters from that game are still on the roster. The Red Sox are averaging more strikeouts per game in 2026 than they did in 2025, now ranking No. 18 in MLB in that category. Carlos Narváez, Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras and Roman Anthony all boast strikeout rates above 26% three weeks into the season. Look for Mize to take advantage and go for at least five strikeouts in at least 5.0 innings on Friday.

Best Bet: Casey Mize over 4.5 strikeouts thrown (-144)