The Brewers and Cardinals play the first game of their three-game series on Monday, May 25.

Milwaukee is a -230 moneyline favorite, while St. Louis is +187 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Brewers vs. Cardinals game.

Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

Just 1.5 games separate these teams in the NL Central, yet the Brewers are heavy favorites at home. That’s what a severe pitching advantage will do for a team. Jacob Misiorowski is starting for Milwaukee as he continues his scoreless streak. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 25, which includes four starts against some of the best offenses in the majors (Nationals, Yankees, Padres and Cubs).

These aren’t lucky outings either. Misiorowski allowed only nine hits and struck out 37 in this four-game stretch. That’s 37 strikeouts in 24.1 innings—impressive to say the least. This will be an interesting matchup because the Cardinals have the sixth fewest strikeouts in the majors. Can Misiorowski dominate without a plethora of strikeouts?

The 24-year-old has made 10 starts this season, but he’s finished with fewer than seven strikeouts just once. The outlier was five strikeouts against the Blue Jays across 5.1 innings; he allowed two earned runs and five hits. There isn’t much data from this season to decide whether Misiorowski can dominate without strikeouts, but his 2.12 FIP backs up his 1.89 ERA.

The other argument is that the Cardinals’ lack of strikeouts won’t matter against Misiorowski. The right-hander has been so good that he can punch out just about any lineup right now. Perhaps that’s how to view this matchup because it’s quite the talent gap in terms of starting pitching.

Brewers vs. Cardinals Pick, Best Bet

This whole game revolves around Misiorowski and his ability to shut down the Cardinals. St. Louis has lost four of its last six games, giving Misiorowski a good opportunity to continue his excellence.

Brewers moneyline is far too steep, so I’m taking the under at 7.5. Misiorowski may not shut out the Cardinals, and Matthew Liberatore may allow a couple runs to Milwaukee, but it won’t be enough to clear the over. The Brewers would essentially have to hit the over by themselves.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)