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The Orlando Magic are on the verge of history, as they’ve taken a 3-1 lead over the East’s No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round of the playoffs, seeking to become only the eighth No. 8 seed in NBA history to knock off the conference’s top team. They’re -255 to ultimately get the job done at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, their path got more difficult on Wednesday afternoon when it was revealed that star forward Franz Wagner was “not expected to play” in tonight’s potentially clinching Game 5, which will tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Thankfully for Orlando, it’s used to playing without Wagner. The talented German, who missed 22 games last season with an oblique strain, appeared in just 34 during the regular season after sustaining a severe ankle sprain on December 7, which cost him nearly four months of action. The Magic were 4.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off (and are 17.0 points per 100 possessions better so far these playoffs), but their net rating was barely negative with him off the floor during the regular season, so they could survive his absence to close out the series tonight.
Presumably, Tristan da Silva ($3,700) will step back into the starting lineup in Wagner’s place tonight. Da Silva, the 18th overall pick in last summer’s draft, started 34 games this season and was solid, averaging 12.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game while making 38.2% of his three-pointers. Additionally, Jamal Cain ($3,900), who recorded eight points and nine rebounds (19.2 FPTS) in Orlando’s Game 4 win, could play a bigger offensive role after mostly falling out of the rotation after Wagner’s return at the start of April.
In theory, the Pistons represent a difficult matchup, given that they allowed the 10th-fewest FPTS per game to small forwards during the regular season, but they’ve been slightly more gettable these playoffs. They’ve focused their defensive attention more on Paolo Banchero ($8,900) and Desmond Bane ($7,000), so Wagner has been guarded predominantly by either Cade Cunningham ($10,300) or Tobias Harris ($6,500). Harris isn’t a good defender, and while Cunningham has had an excellent defensive season, he hasn’t looked the same since returning from his collapsed lung. Cain and da Silva should also be able to get something going against him.
Without Wagner, the Magic are 10.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook (+310 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 211.5. Detroit is -395 on the Moneyline.
Orlando is also +20000 to win the NBA title and +2000 to win the Eastern Conference.
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