Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres.
The Cardinals and Padres close Wednesday at Busch Stadium inside the kind of heat that makes baseball feel punitive. St. Louis enters 40-31, San Diego 37-35, and the series has already exposed a widening temperamental gap. The Padres have two runs and five hits through two games, while the Cardinals have six runs, 16 hits, and too many stranded chances. San Diego has lost 15 of its last 21, and this getaway afternoon arrives with the smell of panic and sunscreen. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Padres’ pitching plan gives St. Louis the correct target, even with Bradgley Rodriguez complicating the opening frame. Rodriguez brings a 2.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 31 strikeouts, 12 walks, and one homer allowed across 33.1 innings. His 2.71 FIP, 55.3% ground-ball rate, and 0.27 HR/9 can quiet the first turn. The handoff is the wound. Griffin Canning is expected to cover bulk innings, carrying a 0-5 record, 7.17 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 13.5% walk rate, 1.57 WHIP, and 1.91 HR/9.
Canning’s Statcast page reads like a weather advisory with seams. Opponents have hit him for a 92 mph average exit velocity, 52% hard-hit rate, 35.3% sweet-spot rate, and 11.8% barrel rate. His seven-pitch spread includes sliders, four-seamers, changeups, sinkers, sweepers, cutters, and curves, which sounds resourceful until the walks arrive. He just gave Baltimore seven runs, six hits, two homers, and five walks in five innings. That is a terrible suitcase to unpack in 90-degree air.
St. Louis has the lineup texture to turn that bulk assignment into a long municipal complaint. The Cardinals are hitting .245/.322/.402 with a .724 OPS, 61 homers, 76 doubles, 162 walks, and 435 strikeouts against right-handed pitching. JJ Wetherholt gives the top OBP and speed, with 10 homers, eight steals, a 10.9% walk rate, .342 wOBA, and 119 wRC+. Iván Herrera adds a .396 OBP, .366 wOBA, 136 wRC+, 13% walk rate, and 15.5% strikeout rate. That gives Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker actual traffic.
Burleson and Walker are the two bats that make the team total singe at the edges. Burleson owns 13 homers, a .285/.349/.491 line, .206 ISO, .363 wOBA, and 134 wRC+. His contact backs it up: 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 47.8% hard-hit rate, 34.5% sweet-spot rate, and 11.7% barrel rate. Walker brings the louder violence, with 18 homers, 10 steals, a .292/.346/.545 line, .253 ISO, .384 wOBA, and 148 wRC+. His 94.7 mph average exit velocity, 53.2% hard-hit rate, 35.8% sweet-spot rate, and 14.4% barrels fit this park weather beautifully.
San Diego’s case runs through Kyle Leahy’s combustible contact sheet, which keeps the Cardinals run line behind the team total. Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.64 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 77 hits, 25 walks, and nine homers allowed in 64 innings. Statcast is harsher, with a 92.2 mph exit velocity allowed, 50.2% hard-hit rate, 40.2% sweet-spot rate, and 12% barrels. The Padres are hitting .214/.291/.360 with a .651 OPS against righties, though Fernando Tatis Jr., Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts can still punish mistakes. The names carry thunder; the production has spent this series whispering into a towel.
The late innings also favor a Cardinals scoring angle over a margin play. Mason Miller is out for the series on the bereavement/family medical leave list, removing San Diego’s hardest ninth-inning door. Jason Adam, Adrián Morejón, David Morgan, Kyle Hart, and Rodriguez were available behind the opener plan, but that bridge loses teeth without Miller. Busch Stadium’s weather adds the final shove, with clear skies, 86-to-93-degree heat, low precipitation, and wind rising from 20 to 24 mph.
Best bet: Cardinals TT o5.5 runs at +110, playable to +100. Cardinals -1.5 at +153 is live, but Leahy’s contact profile adds too much backdoor risk. Full-game over 10 at -118 needs a San Diego revival.
Final score: Cardinals 7, Padres 4.
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