The Timberwolves split the opening two matchups with the Spurs in San Antonio, and the action will return to Minnesota tonight. Anthony Edwards made his return to court for both opening matchups, despite playing some limited minutes. Minnesota did not blink at the Spurs’ elite defense in Game 1, forcing Victor Wembanyama to earn his Defensive Player of the Year status, and walked away with a positive result. But the Spurs returned to the elite level team they have shown to be all season by blowing out the Timberwolves in Game 2.

Looking at the odds for Game 3, the Spurs are 4.5-point favorites and hold -205 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +170 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 216.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the more disrespected teams in the league this year in terms of title contention. This is a franchise coming off back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances and has clearly internalized its lack of public belief. Minnesota finished the regular season with a 49-33 overall record, finishing in sixth place in the West. The Timberwolves eliminated Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the opening round despite being drastically undermanned and made a statement with their opening game victory in this game. On the season, Minnesota has gone 41-49 against the spread, and the game total is 39-51 to the over/under.

Injuries have become the most notable storyline for this Timberwolves team across this playoff run. Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles tendon in the early minutes of Game 4 of the opening round, which will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future. Anthony Edwards remains listed as questionable with his left knee bone bruise, but was present at shoot around this morning and played in the first two games of the series. Ayo Dosunmu is also listed as questionable with right heel soreness. He missed Game 6 of the first round and Game 1 of this series, returning to play just 10:29 of game action in the previous matchup.

Looking at the production this year, Anthony Edwards remains the head of the snake. The four-time All-Star is posting averages of 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season. Julius Randle has outperformed his expectations, scoring 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels has scaled up his scoring role in a major way during this playoff run and helps set the tone for this team. Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Mike Conley also play notable roles.

As a team, the Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.

Inexperience continues to be the biggest issue of this Spurs team, but this roster is loaded with talent that has met the challenge all year. San Antonio finished the season with a 62-20 overall record, earning the second seed in the West. They finished the year by winning 19 of their final 22 games and defeated the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round. On the season, the Spurs have gone 51-37-2 against the spread, and the game total is 39-51 to the over/under.

The Spurs enter this matchup with a clean injury report. Victor Wembanyama headlines the production as the most game-changing defensive talent in the league, with overall averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks this season. De’Aaron Fox provides some necessary veteran experience to this roster, averaging 18.6 points and 6.7 assists, while Stephon Castle helps set the tone on both sides of the ball and adds 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie also play key roles.

The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, adding 119.8 points per game. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which is the eighth-best rate in the league. Mitch Johnson’s squad also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Takeaways:

It was a surprising Game 1 result in this series, as Minnesota’s postseason experience proved critical. San Antonio improved their record from 34-48 last season to 62-20 this year. They have looked the part of legitimate contenders across the regular season, but there is some amount of playoff scars that still need to be carved, and the Timberwolves have much more postseason experience.

Minnesota ultimately produced a 104-102 victory in the series-opening matchup. San Antonio got a good look at the buzzer for a potential game-winning three-pointer by Julian Champagnie, but the shot was off the mark. Spurs’ head coach Mitch Johnson elected to pass on calling a timeout and for the shot to occur organically. San Antonio got a look they should feel solid about, but it still felt like a massive missed opportunity from this Spurs team.

Overall, neither team extended a lead by more than nine points in the matchup, and each side led for 35%+ of the matchup. The rebounding battle was 47-46, the teams shot 46% and 45% from the floor, and the points in the paint were 58-52.

The Spurs are the more talented team who have played at a higher level for most of the season. But the Timberwolves have not been given the proper respect and have taken advantage of each opportunity they have had. Anthony Edwards looked healthier than seemed realistically possible after the opening round injury scare.

Things looked much different in Game 2, with the Spurs asserting the level of dominance they showed in the regular season. San Antonio cruised to a 133-95 win in which they led for 96% of the matchup and were able to get their starters some additional rest. Minnesota was limited to 40% shooting from the field and 30% from beyond the three-point arc.

Minnesota followed suit by prioritizing the rest of their own once the game got unreachable. Splitting the two games in San Antonio should be looked at as a success from the Timberwolves’ perspective, as they will return home with the series fully up for grabs.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 3 prediction, pick

It has been a tale of two games to this point, but the extra rest the Timberwolves got due to the blowout could work to their favor in the overall series. Minnesota went 26-15 when playing at home this regular season and won all three home games in the playoffs, including covering the spread in all three matchups. They are just 21-23 against the spread at home this season, but 5-4 against the spread as home underdogs.

There is a fearlessness to this Minnesota team that is necessary in this matchup. The team made it clear that they have no intention of changing their style and will continue to attack the rim with ferocity and force Victor Wembanyama to live up to his reputation. The unanimous Defensive Player of the Year tallied 12 blocks in the opening matchup, but the Timberwolves walked away with the win.

My lean is toward the Timberwolves winning outright and taking control of the series. However, I am backing the +4.5 points as some added cushion.

Beyond not looking afraid in Game 1, the Timberwolves have not flinched at this Spurs team all year. San Antonio lost just 20 games all season, but the Timberwolves were responsible for handing them three of these. Minnesota has also won six of its last seven games against the Spurs at the Target Center.

This is a tough Timberwolves team that will not be bothered by the previous blowout loss and is eager to get back in the win category. Anthony Edwards has largely looked healthier than seemed possible, and the additional rest will only help with this. Expect Minnesota to lean on their playoff experience and out tough this youthful Spurs team tonight. The margin for error is slim in the playoffs, and San Antonio has left a bit to be desired in this area. Count on a strong effort from this Minnesota team and for tonight to come down to the final few possessions with the +4.5 spread a comfortable margin.

Best Bet: Timberwolves +4.5 (-108)