The MLB takes center stage with playoff runs finished in two of the other major American sports leagues, meaning we’re really getting into the thick of baseball season now. Last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks took a 4-3 win against the Los Angeles Angels to improve an impressive win-loss record at their home ballpark. On Tuesday, these teams meet again as the D-Backs try and build on this momentum to snap a recent cold stretch.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Angels vs. Diamondbacks matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Angels vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels fell to 29-44 after last night’s loss and remain tied for worst in the AL with the Kansas City Royals. Now 5-5 in their last 10 outings, they’ve lost back-to-back games and the overall run differential sits at -39. At the plate, Los Angeles averages 4.47 runs per game and is notably a little more productive on the road with 4.94 a night. By all means, this offense is respectable in most aspects. A .709 OPS sits 20th among all clubs on a .237/.318/.390 slash line, and a BABIP of .294 falls 11th as well. They also have a .153 ISO and 83 home runs, so there’s a decent bit of power in the lineup. Why then, isn’t the group doing better? A 24.8% K% is the worst in baseball and an 0.36 BB/K ratio is sixth-to-last. Plate discipline is a problem, but they do get a tasty matchup against a struggling RHP — against that handedness, the Halos slash .238/.317/.390 with a .708 OPS and 60 of their 81 homers.

LHP Reid Detmers starts tonight’s game with a 2-5 record in 14 appearances. He has a 4.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 81.0 IP, good for a 29.3% K%. He has an 88th-percentile xERA and 85th-percentile xBA, so he’s been unlucky in terms of earned runs allowed thus far. The bullpen behind him is among the MLB’s worst though, producing a 4.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.3% K-BB%.

Arizona Diamondbacks

This recent skid for the Diamondbacks has been a bump in the road, but they’ve now won back-to-back games and may be able to start building momentum from here. They remain third in the NL West at 37-35, with the club’s run run differential at -19. Their record at home notably improved to 22-14 after last night, but they’re not a high-scoring group by any means with just 4.22 runs a night. That’s due to a lack of productive bats, with the team’s .692 OPS dropping all the way to 26th in the MLB. Getting on base has been an issue with a .237/.307/.385 slash line, a .278 BABIP and a .306 wOBA — the latter of which comes in at fourth-to-last. Arizona is also somewhat lacking in power with a .147 ISO and only 65 homers, but the unit does keep strikeouts to a minimum with the third lowest K% at 20.2%. Plus, they get the better of their splits against a lefty tonight, slashing .269/.328/.435 with a .763 OPS against southpaws. That’s a major boost.

RHP Merrill Kelly will throw for Arizona tonight with a 5-5 record in 11 games. He has a 5.46 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and only 38 strikeouts in 64.1 IP. The veteran has been unable to recover his form of the last couple years thus far and grades out below the MLB average in all of Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics except for a 77th-percentile chase rate. Arizona’s relievers behind him have an ERA of 4.07, a 1.22 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%.

Angels vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -112 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Angels are very slight underdogs at -107 to win outright with the run total set at 8.5.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-122)

It’s chalky, but the over feels like really solid value in this one. Detmers’ underlying numbers suggest he’s having an excellent season, but the Diamondbacks’ bats are great against lefties and almost make you feel like they’re a legit postseason threat with the way they hit southpaws. That could spell trouble for Detmers, and the bullpen behind him is one of the weakest in baseball. If the D-Backs hold up their end of the bargain in terms of run creation, the Angels should have no issue getting to Kelly. His strikeout stuff is pretty rough this year and he may not be able to take advantage of this swing-happy lineup. He’s also giving up a first-percentile barrel rate with average exit velocity in the 25th percentile. The Halos could probably get close to cashing this over for us even if Arizona doesn’t have a big night at home. Between the conditions for these teams, I like scoring in this one.