Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Monday’s FIFA World Cup match between Jordan and Algeria.
For Jordanian fans, simply being at the World Cup is cause for celebration. Getting a point would be an accomplishment, but it’s certainly not an expectation. Plenty of debutants, including a fellow Asian side in Qatar in 2022, have finished with three losses.
The Chivalrous Ones will face Argentina on the final day of action, so unless the Albiceleste have clinched first place in the group by then and rest their contributors, they’re unlikely to take any points from that one. Tonight’s 11 p.m. ET match against Algeria represents probably Jordan’s best chance of stealing a point, given that the Fennecs were on the other side of a Lionel Messi hat trick in a 3-0 defeat.
Algeria is a -175 favorite to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Chivalrous Ones are +500. There are +320 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down the final game of the evening and provide my favorite bet.
Despite both games’ lopsided scores, both teams put up a pretty solid fight in their opening matches. The Chivalrous Ones were even with Austria until the 76th minute before an own goal and a last-minute penalty undid their efforts and made the scoreline look more lopsided than the game actually was. On paper, the Fennecs’ performance was more disappointing, but they controlled the pace of the game and could’ve made it more competitive had Messi simply not been so unilaterally unstoppable. Algeria has the higher expectations and the better pedigree, so it surely came away from its opening performance more disappointed than Jordan did. Still, goal difference could matter if either these teams end up securing three points, so the Chivalrous Ones’ two-goal loss to Austria puts them in a better position to potentially advance with a win than the Fennecs’ three-goal defeat, but both teams need a win. A draw would effectively leave each out, barring an upset win on the final day.
Most of Jordan’s roster is unknown to the casual fan, as only one (Rennes midfielder Musa Al-Taamari) plays in one of Europe’s top five leagues, but the Chivalrous Ones played well against fairly strong opposition in Das Team and were in with a chance at a point until the final kick of the game. They managed to generate 11 shots, tied for the 21st-most per match so far this competition, putting four on target, and while 0.46 expected goals per match isn’t great, that out-paces six other teams. Additionally, Jordan — which operated a five-at-the-back formation against Austria and could either do so again or switch to a more balanced 3-4-3 — had a strong defensive performance, giving up just 1.69 expected goals from 11 shots (four on target) and forcing Das Team to take five of their shots from outside the box. The Chivalrous Ones did an especially excellent job intercepting the ball and winning ground duels, though their performance on aerial duels was poor, and despite pressing frequently, they didn’t do a great job forcing high turnovers. Goalkeeper Yazeed Abdulaila had a great performance in Jordan’s run to the Asian Cup final in 2023, but he wasn’t so good either during qualifiers or against Austria.
Algeria has the far bigger names, boasting 11 players in Europe’s top five leagues to go along with Riyad Mahrez, a former African Footballer of the Year. One of those players, Wolfsburg forward Mohamed Amoura, was actually the top scorer in CAF qualifications, as he netted 10 times. Additionally, Amine Gouiri, who started ahead of Amoura before giving way in the 64th minute, is coming off of an eight-goal season for Marseille. Still, Vladimir Petković might need to make a change, as the Fennecs managed only 0.32 expected goals and put none of their seven shots on target despite some clinical passing. Defensively, Algeria allowed the Albiceleste to amass 1.26 expected goals but limited them to just four shots in the box, as Rayan Aït-Nouri and Rami Bensebaini both had solid performances. Additionally, the Fennecs had among the best aerial duel win rates, and they were able to force lots of high turnovers with their press. Like Jordan, their biggest weak link is in between the sticks, as Luca Zidane’s performance against Argentina left plenty to be desired.
This could be a scrappy match with plenty of chances but limited clinical quality. Both teams press frequently, so while the Chivalrous Ones were better at getting into position for interceptions and could create fast-break opportunities, Algeria’s elite passing means it should be able to break the press more easily. Jordan also made more errors against easier competition. I’d expect the deliberate North African side to control the pace of the game, ultimately amassing more opportunities to beat Abdulaila than the Chivalrous Ones will have against Zidane, and the combination of Amoura, Gouiri, and Leverkusen wunderkind Ibrahim Maza should be expected to get a shot on target and eventually a goal. I don’t think one goal would be enough, though; Jordan did a decent job pushing passes into the final third, and it attempted more shots in the box than Austria did, so Zidane should be exposed eventually. There’s some value in both teams to score.
Check out the World Cup landing page at DraftKings Network for more World Cup content!
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。