Cooper Albers breaks down his DraftKings Pick6 selections for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa.
It’s going down at 145 pounds on Saturday, as Arnold Allen meets Melquizael Costa in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the META Apex.
Allen is a -125 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Costa sits as a +105 underdog.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa. Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6 for my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC event.
Featherweight linchpin Arnold Allen (20–4) is looking to bounce back after dropping three of his last four bouts — all of which have gone to decision. The English southpaw, 32, will have his hands full against rising contender Melquizael Costa (26–7), who has won six straight fights, with four stoppages.
Still, the 29-year-old Costa should run into trouble finishing the seasoned veteran — “Almighty” Allen has never been stopped in his 14-year career. It seems increasingly likely that whoever takes Saturday night’s main event will get it done on the judges’ scorecards.
Rather than stand and bang with one of the division’s top strikers, Costa would be wise to lean on his grappling and lethal submission game. “The Dalmatian” has eight submission victories under his belt, inducing a pair of tap-outs during his six-fight surge.
While Allen has shown strong defensive grappling throughout his career, he has been taken down at least four times in two of his last three bouts. Top contender Movsar Evloev dragged him down five times for 3:31 control time in January 2024. Costa could look to follow a similar blueprint in an attempt to neutralize Arnold’s dangerous striking.
Brazilian featherweight Daniel Santos (14–2) looks to push his winning streak to five Saturday night against returning fan-favorite Dooho Choi (16–4–1). Two of “Willycat’s” four Octagon wins have come by knockout, and he looks poised to follow suit against the grizzled veteran.
While also an accomplished stoppage artist, “The Korean Superboy” hasn’t fought since December 2024. He has also twice been knocked out in his career. Now 35, don’t expect Choi to shake off the ring rust before getting caught by Santos.
After suffering his first professional loss via decision, Malcolm Wellmaker (10–1) will likely leave nothing to chance Saturday night. The American bantamweight, 31, had previously gone a flawless 3–0 — with three first-round knockouts — across Dana White’s Contender Series and the UFC, falling well below 54.5 significant strikes in each bout.
He returns to the Octagon against fellow rising prospect Juan Diaz (15–1–1), who’s coming off a second-round knockout victory on DWCS. Whether he scores an early finish or ends up on the wrong side of a stoppage, don’t expect “The Machine” to reach his lofty significant strike total.
Light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas (19–7) has looked completely rejuvenated since returning to the UFC in February 2023. The Lithuanian kickboxer, 32, has since gone 6–2 inside the Octagon, clearing 34.5 significant strikes in five bouts during that stretch.
On Saturday, Bukauskas faces a short-notice replacement in the debuting Christian Edwards (8–4), who’s also known for his striking prowess. This bout should stay on the feet, creating a clear path for Bukauskas to clear his modest strike prop once again.
Top-15 women’s bantamweights Ketlen Vieira (15–5) and Jacqueline Cavalcanti (10–1) have combined for exactly one stoppage across 19 total Octagon appearances. That lone finish came when Vieira submitted Sara McMann at UFC 215 — in 2017.
While Cavalcanti, who has won eight straight bouts, enters as a slight -166 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, it feels incredibly improbable for her to get it done inside the distance.
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2+ players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice, and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
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