Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.
Carlos Mendoza’s tenure in Queens is finally over. After a disastrous start to their season, the Mets (34-47) fired their manager on Friday morning. While it’s not a shocking move, it does raise the question of whether New York has given up any hopes at competing in 2026. It’s not as if things will get any easier tonight against the Phillies (45-36). Ace Zack Wheeler is on the mound, looking to silence his old club on the road.
The Phillies are favorites (-163) over the Mets, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Philadelphia and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Zack Wheeler toeing the slab for the visitors on Friday. Since his return from injury back in late April, the veteran has looked like his old self on the mound. Through 11 starts (68.1 IP), he’s notched a 2.11 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 69 strikeouts (9.1 K/9). That includes a 5.2-inning, two-run showing during last weekend’s win over the Mets. Per Savant, the right-hander sits within the 85th percentile among qualified starters in xERA (3.01), xBA (.210) and chase rate (35.1%). He’s also an innings eater, having tossed at least six frames in all but two of his appearances so far.
Opposing Wheeler tonight will be one of the National League’s worst offensive units. The Mets are averaging just 4.04 runs per game, seventh-worst in baseball. They’ve also managed to record the third-worst OPS against right-handed pitching this season (.670). This is a spot Wheeler has dominated in recently, posting a 1.76 ERA during his previous five meetings with the not-so Amazins. New York’s lineup sits within the bottom five clubs in batting average (.231), on-base percentage (.299), wOBA (.299) and wOBAcon (.345).
As for the Mets, it’ll be Zach Thornton making his second start in the majors. During his first time out on May 20th, the left-hander coughed up four earned runs in just 4.1 innings against Washington. He relied heavily on the cutter, throwing it on 50% of his pitches vs. the Nationals. Whether the rookie will stick to that pitch mix remains to be seen. It’s not as if Thornton was lighting it up, topping out at just under 92.0 MPH. Against cutters at that speed or slower, Phillies batters have put up a .287/.331/.514 slash line.
Granted, it’s not as if today’s opponent is quite as formidable as Washington. The Phillies are only averaging 4.08 runs per game on the road, sixth-worst in the majors. This group can still hit homers with the best of them, but the long ball makes up a disproportionate amount of their offense. Philadelphia has the seventh-worst batting average (.236) and third-worst on-base percentage (.302) in the league this season. However, the Fightins come into this one having scored an MLB-best 74 runs over their previous ten contests. Kyle Schwarber (1.239 OPS) and Bryce Harper (1.135 OPS) have been raking during that stretch.
Philadelphia has a massive advantage on the mound with the red-hot Wheeler. In addition, the Phillies are finally getting it going at the plate. The Mets, losers in six straight matchups, offer little hope on a normal night. With an untested rookie on the bump, this one could get ugly.
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