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MLB Best Bets: Top Starting Pitcher Prop Bets for Saturday 5/16/26
Zach Thompso · 2026-05-17 · via DraftKings Network

Zach Thompson details his top starting pitcher props for Saturday’s MLB slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.

With 18 Major League Baseball teams taking the field under the lights on Saturday night as part of Rivalry Weekend, there are some great matchups to check out all across the scoreboard. While there are plenty of fun home run props and DFS fantasy baseball contests on the board, it’s also a great night to explore some of the many options offered for starting pitcher prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. In this post, you can find my top plays for Reds SP Chris Paddack, Red Sox SP Payton Tolle and Dodgers SP Justin Wrobleski.

In almost every MLB contest, starting pitching is key to deciding how the matchup will play out. DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of different varieties of SP prop bets, so let’s survey the field and find some fun ones to target this Saturday night.

Top MLB SP Props

Chris Paddack o5.5 Hits Allowed (+106)

The Marlins released Paddack after he made seven appearances for them this season. He allowed a total of 41 hits in 30.2 innings, letting lefties hit .301 and righties hit .317 against him. He gave up at least six hits in four of his seven games, including his most recent outing on May 3, when he gave up six hits in just 2.2 innings against the Phillies.

While the Guardians’ lineup doesn’t have a ton of power, they do have 163 hits in their 23 home games for an average of 7.1 hits per game. They had eight hits on Friday in the series opener but only four came against starter Andrew Abbott.

The Guardians’ team batting average isn’t high, but they should still be ready to roll against Paddack, who has been so hittable this season. The Reds had to go to their bullpen early on Friday, so they’ll be looking for some length from Paddack on Saturday, which should push him over this prop of hits allowed.

Payton Tolle o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)

Tolle and the Red Sox are in Atlanta, and the Braves have been tough to strike out this season. However, Tolle’s strikeout numbers have been strong enough to still pick him to get to six strikeouts this Saturday.

The 23-year-old lefty has 27 strikeouts in 22.2 innings in his four starts in the Majors this season after racking up 19 strikeouts in 15 innings in Triple-A. Tolle only had four strikeouts against the Rays in his last start, but fanned eight in seven strong innings against the Tigers in his last road start. He also showed his potential for dominance with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in his first game of the season.

Tolle has a 31.0% K% and is picking up over a strikeout per inning. Lately, the Braves have allowed lefties Connely Early (six), Shota Imanaga (six), and Justin Wrobleski (seven) to go over this prop in starts against them, and Tolle always brings high punchout potential.

Justin Wrobleski u1.5 Walks Allowed (+111)

In one of the later games on the schedule, Wrobleski is on the bump for the Dodgers as they take on the Angels. The 25-year-old lefty has been very effective this season, going 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 3.57 FIP.

He gave up seven runs in 8.2 innings against the Braves in his last start, issuing just one walk and throwing 67 of his 100 pitches for strikes. He also had only one walk in six innings in his previous start against the Cardinals.

Wrobleski has been under this walk prop in five of his seven games this year, with the two exceptions being a road game in Toronto and a home game against the Cubs. He issued four walks in each of those two outings, so when he went over, he went way over, skewing his average to 1.6 walks per outing.

The Angels do have a slightly above-average walk rate, but Wrobleski’s control should keep him under this prop based on how sharp he has looked in his last few outings. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he needs his command to navigate effectively, making this a nice plus-money prop to attack Saturday night in L.A.

If you want to be more aggressive, you can combine these three plays into a nice parlay at +834, or you can use them in a round-robin format or combine them with other picks and plays that you like.