Sean Barnard breaks down the upcoming second-round NBA Playoffs series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers.
The opening round of the NBA playoffs is just about in the books, with the second round matchups set in the Western Conference. Facing off in the 1 vs. 4 matchup, the Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Thunder swept the Suns without much trouble in the opening round, while the Lakers defeated the Rockets in six games to keep their postseason alive.
The Thunder are monster -1600 favorites to win the series, while the Lakers hold +900 odds of pulling off the outright upset on DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, there are plenty of different ways to get involved in the action that hold more appeal than just betting the series straight up. This article will take a look at a preview for each team and a pair of series bets that have caught my eye.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to defend last year’s NBA championship and become the first team to repeat since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018. They went an NBA-best 64-18 across the regular season, including starting the season on a 24-1 tear. Oklahoma City has gone 41-45 against the spread this season, and the game total is 46-40 to the over/under.
Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines the production, posting averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds across the regular season. He is leading the NBA with 33.8 points per game across the postseason thus far. Chet Holmgren further elevated his game this season, posting averages of 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds while setting the tone defensively. Jalen Williams has battled injuries all season, and this remains a concern with him suffering a hamstring strain in the opening round. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso also play key roles.
Across the regular season, the Thunder averaged 119.0 points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. They also rank seventh in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the second-fewest points per game against the Thunder at 107.9 per contest. Oklahoma City also leads the NBA in defensive rating, ranks first in opponent field-goal percentage and 25th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Los Angeles Lakers finished the season as the fourth seed in the Western Conference with a 53-29 record. They battled injuries down the home stretch of the season, but Austin Reaves made his return for the final two games of the Rockets series, and there is optimism that Luka Doncic could make his return in this series. Los Angeles defeated the Houston Rockets in six games to advance after taking a 3-1 series lead. On the season overall, the Lakers have gone 50-38 against the spread, and the game total is 43-45 to the over/under.
LeBron James continues to win his battle with Father Time and is back to headlining the production for this Lakers team. After averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season, James is averaging 23.2 points, 8.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds through the first six postseason games. Austin Reaves picked up right where he left off before injury after a stellar regular season in which he averaged 23.3 points, 5.5 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game across the regular season. Deandre Ayton stepped up his game in the previous postseason matchup, and Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura and Luke Kennard also play crucial roles.
The Lakers finished the regular season averaging 116.3 points per game, which ranks 11th in the league. They also rank ninth in offensive rating, first in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Los Angeles, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Lakers also rank 19th in defensive rating, 24th in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
On a wider scale of the season, the Lakers have overachieved based on the quality of their roster. Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves can still go toe-to-toe with any team in terms of top-end talent. But Los Angeles has failed to get adequate play at the big man position on a consistent basis, and it is light on depth compared to the top contenders, such as its opponent in this series. The Lakers have done a nice job scoring at a rate teams struggle to match and getting wins with their offense. But if they cannot put forth an adequate defensive effort, they will be in trouble, and expect this to be the case in this series.
The Lakers defeated the Rockets in the opening round, where they showed an improved defensive level. But this also had plenty to do with Houston missing Kevin Durant and having a sloppy overall offensive approach. The Rockets’ offense can look clunky at times, even under the best of circumstances, and it left plenty of production on the table in a way that favored the Lakers. Even with this, it took six games for Los Angeles to officially advance.
There will not be this same margin for error against the defending champions, and expect the Thunder to punish this Lakers team. Oklahoma City is more talented on both sides of the ball and plays a cohesive style of basketball with its postseason scars etched across these past two seasons. This is not a team that takes its foot off the gas, as exemplified by its opening series sweep.
While the -240 odds of going undefeated at home and +100 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of going undefeated on the road also caught my eye, I am backing the Thunder to take a convincing 3-0 series lead and assert themselves as the top championship threat once again. Oklahoma City does not play with its food and expect an all-out effort to take control of the series by winning the opening three matchups.
To take things a step further, I think the brooms are coming out in this series. While LeBron James has an illustrious career and postseason history, he has also been swept in the postseason three times. It should also be made clear that this is not necessarily doubting his ability in the twilight years of his career, but rather the supporting cast around him. James may be capable of going toe-to-toe with this Thunder team, but especially with Luka Doncic’s status uncertain, expect players 3-8 in the rotation to have a massive disadvantage to the Thunder.
For what it is worth, the Thunder went 4-0 against the Lakers in the regular season, and Oklahoma City covered the spread in all four matchups. These final scores were 121-92, 119-110, 139-96 and 123-87.
It is fair to push back that the postseason holds a completely different outlook and that some of these trends should be thrown out the window. But the Thunder are not a young team that could be scared by the weight of the moment. These are the defending champions who led the league in wins across the regular season. Don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas for any extended period and for Oklahoma City to make it a priority to maximize its level of rest heading into the Conference Finals.
Game 1 of the Thunder vs. Lakers series will take place on Tuesday, May 5th at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, as the Thunder hold the home-court advantage in the series.
This is a Best-Of-Seven series between the Thunder and Lakers. The first team to win four games will move on to the Western Conference Finals.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。