



















Zach Thompson details his top home run props for Friday’s MLB slate, including bets for Samuel Basallo, Colson Montgomery and Daulton Varsho.
All 30 MLB teams take the field this Friday, with a Wrigley matinee preceding 14 games under the lights this evening. The weather across the country sets up an interesting mix of environments, with summer weather in some places and cold temps lingering in some typically homer-happy spots, including Coors Field. As we take a look at all the matchups on the board this Friday, let’s swing for the fences and try to find some strong home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are more unlikely than not to homer on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s matchups: Samuel Basallo, Colson Montgomery and Daulton Varsho.
Let’s start with a long shot play from the early game as the Orioles take on the Guardians in Cleveland. The temps are expected to be in the 60s with gentle breezes, so it should be solid hitting weather at Progressive Field. The Orioles have been using top prospect Samuel Basallo in the heart of their lineup, and the 21-year-old has connected on two homers in his last four games, including this blast against Arizona on Tuesday:
Basallo is only 8-for-51 (.157) but has a .333 SLG and .176 ISO. His BABIP is incredibly low at only .152 (league average is usually around .300), but his hard hit rate at 44.4% indicates he’s hitting the ball well when he puts it in play.
He’ll face off against the struggling Tanner Bibee on Friday, who’s served up four gopher balls in his first four games this season. He is 0-2 in those starts with a 6.38 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. He only had a 37.1% hard hit rate in his first three seasons in the majors, but this season, the hard hit rate against him has jumped to 51.7% with a 10.3% barrel rate, as well. Lefties like Basallo have all four homers against Bibee this season, with a .545 SLG and .389 wOBA.
Basallo is a long shot play with odds over 6/1, but brings great value Friday night.
Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are both in play this Friday night, but the forecast on Friday is frigid in Denver, with snow during the day and temps in the low 40s at game time. Rather than attack Coors Field, let’s look at Sutter Health Park, where the forecast is for temps in the 70s and winds blowing out to right.
It should be a good spot for Colson Montgomery, who is another young, power-hitting lefty with long ball potential. Montgomery has three homers in his 19 games this season with a 30% hard hit rate that includes a 10% barrel rate. Before a quiet series against the Rays, Montgomery homered on Sunday against the Royals in Kansas City.
Montgomery and the White Sox face Athletics starter Aaron Civale, who is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA, but has given up a pair of homers in his 15 2/3 innings. In his career, Civale has been a little more hittable by lefties, and Montgomery brings plenty of power potential to this favorable spot against the A’s.
For just the second time since he was traded to Toronto, Varsho will be returning to Arizona to take on the D-backs at Chase Field. Varsho went 4-for-12 with three triples when he returned to Arizona in 2024, and he comes into this matchup swinging a hot stick.
Varsho has three homers on the year, and all three have come in his last six games, a span where he is 10-for-26 (.385) with a .423 ISO and a 45.5% hard hit rate. He’s settled into the second spot in the batting order and should be back in that spot against Arizona’s Michael Soroka on Friday night.
Soroka has allowed just five runs and one homer in his three starts this year, although lefties like Varsho are 10-for-32 with four doubles and a homer. Last season, Soroka gave up 12 homers, including eight to lefties, who had a .414 SLG and a .318 wOBA against him.
Since lefties hit Soroka so well and with Varsho in good form, he’s a nice value play at just over 5/1 odds this Friday.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理,仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。