It all comes down to tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder battle the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. With the season on the line in this win-or-go-home matchup, Chet Holmgren will need to be at his best if his team is to make the NBA Finals once again. Can he shake off what’s largely been a quiet series to perform under the lights?

Here are the top Chet Holmgren prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s Thunder vs. Spurs Game 7 in the Western Conference Finals.

Best Chet Holmgren prop bets

The regular season was kind to Chet Holmgren. The 24-year-old big man posted a career-best 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting 55.7% from the field, also pitching in 1.9 blocks a night with his 7-foot-1 frame and rangy wingspan. While it wasn’t a massive leap by any means, his numbers took a clear step forward after signing a massive contract extension last summer.

Over the first two rounds of the playoffs, he was his team’s second-best player with averages of 18.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game in eight appearances, shooting 60.0% overall. The Western Conference Finals haven’t been as fun for him, though. Holmgren’s production has slipped to only 11.8 points and 7.7 rebounds a night. His shooting percentage of 51.0% is respectable enough, but a 27.3% clip from beyond the arc looks rather rough. Looking at the entire playoff sample for the big man, he’s at 15.7 points and 8.5 boards per game through his 14 outings.

Tonight, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Holmgren’s prop bet lines at O/U 13.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 0.5 three pointers. His combined PTS + REB + AST line comes in at 22.5.

If there’s any prop bet that stands out in this matchup for Holmgren, it’s likely the under on 21.5 combined PTS + REB. The big man is averaging 11.8 points and 7.7 boards in this series for a total of 19.5 per game. That comes up two shy of tonight’s line, but there’s more reason than that alone to feel bullish. Holmgren has actually gone under 21.5 PTS + REB in five-of-six games during this series. His totals in the market are 16, 17, 17, 19, 27 and 21.

His production has ticked upward over the last couple of games, an encouraging sign for the young All-Star after struggling mightily in the first three matchups. His full-season sample against the Spurs is also rather weak though, bringing 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game over 10 total matchups. That’s an average of 19.1 PTS + REB. We’ve seen how the matchup against Victor Wembanyama seems to bother the Thunder’s bigs, particularly Holmgren himself. For the reasons outlined above, especially with his track record in this series alone, I do think a fade in this combo market is best for him again tonight.

Best bet: Chet Holmgren under 21.5 PTS + REB (-117)