Meghan Townsley previews Wednesday’s WNBA matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever and provides her best pick.
Deja vu? The Mercury and Fever just met on Monday night in what turned into a gritty matchup filled with chippy plays and familiar faces exchanging a few choice words — I’m looking at you, Sophie Cunningham and DeWanna Bonner!
The Fever took the first meeting 86-77, and the Mercury will be eager to even the score in Wednesday’s rematch. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, with Indiana entering as 8.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 175.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s get into it!
Indiana snapped a two-game skid caused by back-to-back losses to the Dream, handling the Mercury by nine points on Monday. Only three players hit double-digit points for the Fever, including Kelsey Mitchell, who added 22 points despite shooting just 8-of-20 from the field. Monique Billings provided a strong +15 plus/minus with a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double, while the bench totaled just 10 points. Meaning much of the remaining offense was generated by Caitlin Clark.
Clark continues to be a bucket during her recent stretch, posting 24 points and nine assists in the win to raise her average to 24.4 points per game over her last five contests. Yes, she’s scoring efficiently from the field, but her three-point shot still hasn’t lived up to Clark’s standards. In fact, the Fever shot just 29% from deep compared to 42% from the field as a team. Aliyah Boston and Lexie Hull were able to add eight points each, uncharacteristic for Boston, but Indiana proved Monday night that its offense is carried by Mitchell and Clark.
The Mercury, however, weren’t much better offensively, shooting just 20% from three. Those extra made threes by Indiana proved to be the difference between a win and a loss, as the rest of the box score was fairly even. Both teams finished with similar numbers in steals, blocks, and points off turnovers, while Phoenix held the edge in points in the paint. Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas led the way for the Mercury, scoring 20 and 19 points, respectively, while Thomas added five rebounds and nine assists. While Phoenix built a 13-point lead early, it doesn’t have a consistent third scorer in the starting lineup, which ultimately proved costly.
Wednesday, though, is a new night. Both teams shot the ball poorly, especially from deep, but Indiana held the edge on the glass and proved it can close out games. Thomas continues to be a strong, physical force for the Mercury, and I expect her to focus on slowing down one half of the Clark-Mitchell duo in order to make this game more competitive down the stretch.
I’m not convinced the Fever can run away with this game given how much of the offense was dependent on two scorers, but Indiana’s overall ceiling still gives it the edge heading into the rematch.
The Fever do have a couple of role players who can get buckets, but Clark and Mitchell combined to make 16 of Indiana’s 27 total field goals. If the Mercury can manage to slow down just one of those two talented scorers (a tough ask, admittedly) they could put themselves in a position to cover.
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