Ryan Wohl breaks down his best bet for the Main Event of tonight’s UFC Freedom 250 card between Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje.
The UFC’s No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter and reigning Lightweight Champion, Ilia Topuria, is making his return after a year-long hiatus to take on Interim Champion Justin Gaethje. Topuria is currently on a legendary run, as he is on a three-fight knockout streak with wins over Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira. Meanwhile, Gaethje is 4-1 in his last five contests since his last opportunity at Undisputed gold.
Check out my best bet for Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje in the Main Event of today’s UFC Freedom 250 event.
Gaethje, 37, is 27-5 with 21 finishes and has become a fan favorite in the UFC, truly living up to his nickname “The Highlight”. Throughout his career, he has accomplished a ton, but one thing is missing. The UFC Undisputed Championship. Gaethje is a two-time Lightweight Interim Champion but has come up short in his first two Undisputed title shots. His Undisputed title fights came against Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254 in October 2020 and Charles Oliveira at UFC 274 in May 2022.
Topuria enters this fight with an undefeated and perfect 17-0 record. As competition has increased, Topuria has improved. Recently, Topuria has made the extraordinary fighters look quite ordinary. He isn’t just beating all-time great fighters, but doing so in a manner as dominant as we have ever seen. Topuria has a mysterious aura to himself and a level of confidence that seems unbreakable.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Topuria is a -500 while Gaethje is a +380 underdog in this contest. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds for this fight, with both being -115.
Gaethje is the bigger fighter, as he has the height (5’11” vs. 5’7″) and reach (70″ vs. 69″) advantages. Also, Gaethje averages more significant strikes (6.48 vs. 4.81) per minute at a better rate (58% vs. 48%). Topuria is better defensively, as he has a 64 percent defensive rate on the feet. Although Topuria’s stats don’t appear great, it is because his fights normally don’t last very long. Topuria is aggressive but does an excellent job of not rushing anything and waiting for the perfect moment to pressure his opponent. With 14 of his 17 wins coming in the first two rounds, I’m taking Topuria to win in Rounds 1-2 at -160.
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