It has been tough sledding for the Giants in 2026.

In fact, after a 10-5 loss to the Padres on Tuesday night, San Francisco has now lost seven of its last eight contests, putting the team in a tie with the lowly Rockies for last place in the NL West. Like I said, things have been pretty bleak. Conversely, the Padres have been exceeding expectations left and right, and they currently find themselves only a half-game back of the powerhouse Dodgers for the division’s top spot.

Who will take the rubber match of this all-California battle? Let’s preview this matinee tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Padres vs. Giants prediction, preview

The vibe surrounding the Giants is pretty dour at the moment, but if there’s a glimmer of hope on Wednesday, it’s a matchup with Matt Waldron. The pitching-starved Padres called up the knuckleballer after three scoreless appearances at Triple-A to begin the season, yet things have not gone nearly as well at the MLB level. Waldron’s surrendered 15 earned runs over 13.2 innings of work, and while there’s a Coors appearance and some general unluckiness mixed into that sample, on the whole, there’s not much to be optimistic about here. Waldron’s striking out a mere 11.6% of the batters he’s faced, while also conceding an eye-popping 1.98 opponent home runs per nine. A lack of whiff is a massive red flag on its own. It’s incredibly amplified if the ball is leaving the park that often.

Still, with all that said, you’d be right to question San Francisco’s ability to actually exploit Waldron’s weaknesses. I mean, if not for the Mets’ overall implosion, the Giants would have the worst offense in baseball by a mile. Coming into today’s action, San Francisco sits dead-last in both home runs (22) and steals (10). I’m not 100% sure how one goes about building a roster with no power or no speed, yet Buster Posey has managed to do the impossible. The Giants also rank 30th in OBP (.286), 30th in expected wOBA (.292), 29th in wRC+ (81) and 28th in ISO (.118). Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers all have a contract for over $150 million, but none of the three can currently claim a wOBA over .300. Woof.

Adrian Houser had been another free agent disappointment for the franchise — though at least one at a significantly lower cost. Houser has mustered an ugly 7.12 ERA over his first six starts in a Giants’ uniform, and there’s no underlying statistic that says a fortune change is on the horizon. In fact, Houser sports a third percentile strikeout rate (11.2%) and a sixth percentile opponent expected batting average (.304). His 5.96 xERA is the eighth-highest figure among all pitchers with at least 30 innings under their belt. Ironically, Houser’s best outing of 2026 came in his first start of the season, when he managed 5.1 innings against the Padres and allowed only a single earned run. Since that day, Houser’s ERA is a ghastly 8.28.

Padres vs. Giants pick, best bet

Best Bet: Padres ML (-110)

In a game with two starters this underwhelming, I’ll simply side with the better team. The Padres can at least hit a little bit, as evidenced by a .180 ISO and a 104 wRC+ across the past two weeks. San Diego also sits first in bullpen xERA (3.02), so the guys coming in after Waldron are trustworthy.

Strong Lean: Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases (+102)

Merrill has eight hits in his last four games and he’s been moved up to the Padres’ leadoff spot. Now, he’ll get to face Houser, who has allowed opposing LHBs to slash .395/.453/.737 with a .504 wOBA in 2026.