Best MLB prop bets today for June 16, 2026. Top picks include Reds team total, Nick Kurtz props, and Zebby Matthews strikeouts.
Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong MLB props to target on the June 16 slate, including a team total, hitter prop, and strikeout prop. The Reds are in a great position against Kodai Senga in his return from the injured list; Nick Kurtz gets a favorable home matchup against Mitch Keller, and Zebby Matthews draws one of the highest-strikeout lineups in baseball. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets today.
Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets: Reds team total over 4.5 runs, Nick Kurtz 2+ total bases, and Zebby Matthews over 4.5 strikeouts.
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Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds: -115 | Opponent: New York Mets
Kodai Senga makes his return tonight after spending almost two months on the injured list. He made a few starts in the minors before tonight, and, quite frankly, it doesn’t appear that Senga will look much different than when we last saw him. Through 18 innings across A, AA, and AAA, Senga had a 4.00 ERA with a 5.24 xERA and a 4.10 FIP. If you recall, before his injury, Senga had a 9.00 ERA with an xERA of 4.76 and a 6.15 FIP. Walks and home runs were his big issues, owning a 5.8 BB/9 and a 2.2 HR/9 through 20 innings.
I like the Reds tonight, as they’ve been excellent against both the four-seam and cutter, which are Senga’s main pitches. Against the four-seam, the Reds’ projected lineup for tonight has a combined .329 wOBA and a .178 ISO, and a .418 wOBA with a .350 ISO against the cutter. This Reds lineup will also draw walks, with a combined 10% BB% against righties. I don’t expect Senga to go deep in this game regardless of how he pitches, which means more of the Mets bullpen. Because of all this, I like the Reds to score at least five tonight.
Odds: -117 | Opponent: Pittsburgh Pirates
While this game won’t be played in Coors Field 2.0 (Las Vegas), Sacramento remains a strong hitting environment. Kurtz will have the luxury of facing Mitch Keller tonight, who, against lefties, owns a .339 wOBA with a 4.17 FIP and five of the six home runs he’s allowed. Keller has been having a brutal month of June in which he’s faced the Braves and Dodgers. They’ve teed off on him for 11 runs on 14 hits through just 8.2 innings of work. This wasn’t Keller getting unlucky, as his xERA in those two starts was 9.90. Kurtz continues to rake against righties at home this season, posting a .481 wOBA with a .352 ISO and a 208 wRC+.
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Odds: -112 | Opponent: Texas Rangers
Matthews probably wasn’t the first pitcher that came to mind for a strikeout prop tonight. But, facing the Rangers, I think he’s more than viable. Tonight’s expected lineup for the Rangers has an extremely high K% against right-handed pitching at 24.6%. Personally, for any lineup at or above 20%, I always consider strikeout props for the opposing pitcher. The Rangers lineup is more than above that threshold. Matthews hasn’t been a big strikeout pitcher thus far, but he has in the past. Despite his 7.4 K/9 through six starts, his career K/9 still sits at 9.4. He’s also been fairly unlucky in his starts, as indicated by his 3.77 xERA and a 5.20 ERA. In a matchup that should generate plenty of swings-and-misses, I like taking Matthews to go over 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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