The beauty of playoff basketball is how quickly things get serious. The Spurs stealing Game 1 from the Thunder turns Game 2 into a must-win situation for OKC. Teams down 2-0 in the conference finals win only 9% of the time, and the numbers get worse when you lose the first two at home. That means it’s all hands on deck for the defending champs, and the stars need to get it going. Jalen Williams will have to be part of that winning equation if the Thunder want to avoid going on the ropes.

The Thunder are -7.5 home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s Western Conference Finals matchup. Let’s dig into the top Jalen Williams prop bet for this game.

Best Jalen Williams prop bets

Jalen Williams’ injury loomed large over the Thunder going into Game 1. They held him out of their last six playoff games out of an abundance of caution with his hamstring. Obviously, that didn’t impact Oklahoma City’s run through the first two rounds; the Thunder were 2-0 before he hit the sidelines and 6-0 after. But there’s no playing around against a team like the Spurs, necessitating Williams’ return. So far, so good as far as injury is concerned.

Williams led all Thunder starters in scoring with 26 points in Game 1, adding seven rebounds and three assists. He played a robust 37 minutes, a good chunk of time considering his weeks-long layoff. But the efficiency wasn’t quite there as Williams shot 11/25 from the field and only got to the line three times, which was uncharacteristic considering the volume and his physical style. It makes you wonder about his outlook for this series.

Williams leading OKC in shot attempts was part of the Spurs’ design. They did everything possible to get the ball out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands, and it certainly worked, holding the back-to-back MVP to 24 points on 7-of-23 shooting. That put a lot more on Williams’ plate, especially when SGA was off the floor and Williams was going after San Antonio’s bench units. A lot of touches for J-Dub isn’t the worst thing, but of course, the Thunder want their MVP leading the team in shot attempts. So it puts Williams in a tricky spot.

Here’s the thing: what San Antonio did was very sustainable. Stephon Castle is a superb on-ball defender, and they used Victor Wembanyama as a shadow to close off any drive SGA attempted. It’s possible that the Thunder will have to rely on others, Williams first and foremost, to break this excellent defense. I think that bodes very well for Williams’ volume, which will overcome any concerns about his efficiency.

Best bet: Jalen Williams 20+ Points Scored (+140)