The Astros and Cubs play the first game of their three-game series on Friday, May 22.

Chicago is a -144 moneyline favorite, while Houston is +119 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under seven runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Astros vs. Cubs game.

Astros vs. Cubs prediction, preview

After owning one of the best records in the majors, the Cubs are spiraling quite quickly. They’ve lost five straight and nine of their last 11 ahead of this weekend series against Houston. Chicago is 29-21, which is better than a lot of teams, but the recent losses have been concerning.

Friday’s game features Jameson Taillon vs. Spencer Arrighetti on the mound. Taillon, a veteran right-hander, is in his fourth season with the Cubs, but he’s been unreliable with a 4.97 ERA across 50.2 innings and nine starts. He allowed eight earned runs, eight hits, five home runs and one walk across 5.0 innings on May 16 against the White Sox. Surely, it can’t get worse than that … right?

Houston’s offense ranks 18th in runs per game, but it ranks seventh in batting average. Yordan Alvarez will always be a threat in the lineup, as he’s batting .303 with 15 home runs, 31 RBI and 31 walks. The only issue is that Alvarez has been much worse on the road this season. He’s batting .359 at home (92 AB) vs. .247 on the road (93 AB). These numbers should even out by the end of the season, but it’s fair to keep this in mind for now.

Arrighetti, also a right-hander, will face a struggling Cubs’ lineup that’s scored more than three runs just twice in the past 11 games. Normally this is a much greater challenge, but Arrighetti is catching Chicago at the right time. The third-year pro has a 1.50 ERA through 36 innings and six starts. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game and is coming off 7.1 innings of scoreless, one-hit ball against the Rangers.

Astros vs. Cubs Pick, Best Bet

The Astros are 20-31, which is still far behind the Cubs despite the latter’s poor stretch. It’s understandable why Houston is the road underdog for this game, but I’ve liked Arrighetti this season. The 26-year-old has been consistent across six starts, while Taillon hasn’t found his footing yet.

Best Bet: Houston Astros ML (+119)