Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his pick and prediction for the Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins game on Wednesday, May 20.
The Astros and Twins play the third game of their three-game series on Wednesday, May 20.
Minnesota is a -156 moneyline favorite, while Houston is +129 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Astros vs. Twins game.
There’s a clear pitching disparity in this game. Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins, while Mike Burrows gets the ball for the Astros. It’s one of the reasons why the Twins are -156 favorites in this matchup.
Ryan earned his first All-Star bid last year and is playing well to start 2026. He has a 3.20 ERA across 50.2 innings with 52 strikeouts to 14 walks. His last two starts went 6.0 innings, allowing one earned run in each. Another strong performance is expected against a mediocre Houston offense. The Astros rank 16th in runs per game and are well under .500 midway through May.
Burrows has a greater challenge on Wednesday. The Twins are a top-10 offense in terms of runs per game (ninth). His last two outings are two very different outcomes. He allowed seven earned runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings against the Mariners in his last outing. The one prior was seven scoreless innings against the Reds. The former is more common for the third-year pro, however.
Although this is his third season appearing in the majors, it’s only his second full year and first with the Astros. The early-season struggles are natural, but he should improve his ERA as the year progresses. That doesn’t mean it has to start on Wednesday in the series finale.
The Twins are heavy favorites for a reason. Ryan is pitching well over his past two starts and has been solid all season. Meanwhile, Burrows has one excellent start and the rest mediocre at best. Factor in the Twins’ home-field advantage and better offense, and it’s clear Minnesota wins this by multiple runs.
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