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To the surprise of many, it’s Washington (28-27) currently sitting at second in the NL East. A powerful Nationals lineup dominated on Monday en route to a 10-2 victory. Now, the AL Central-leading Guardians (32-24) will attempt to bounce back this evening. Who has the edge in this intriguing interleague matchup?
The Guardinas are favorites (-136) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Washington and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Few teams in Major League Baseball can swing it like the Nats. This group ranks first in runs scored (298), fourth in homers (71), fourth in steals (53) and fourth in OPS (.746). It’s been a true team effort, elevated by a promising group of budding stars. In the middle of the order, James Wood looks like a franchise cornerstone. Through 55 games, he’s slashing .267/.405/.533 with 14 home runs and 35 RBIs. Shortstop CJ Abrmas has impressed as well, hitting .288 with 12 dingers and a league-leading 46 RBIs. Six different lineup regulars have recorded a wRC+ of at least 100 this season.
Keeping all that in mind, this is quite the challenge for Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo. Granted, the third-year pro has been effective so far. Through 11 outings, he’s recorded a 3.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 51 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). Still, the biggest issue for the southpaw is length; he’s tossed six or more innings on just two occasions this season. On the flip side, Cantillo has allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his starts. The 26-year-old isn’t an analytical darling, ranking inside the 44th percentile for pitching run value. An average fastball velocity of 91.8 MPH doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, either. Washington owns a .293 expected batting average and .491 slugging percentage against four-seamers at 93 MPH or slower.
The key for the Nationals is getting something on the mound. Fortunately, Cade Cavalli might be the best pitcher on the roster right now. While that isn’t saying much, the third-year pro has been a stabilizing force for most of the season. Over 53.2 innings of work, he’s produced a 3.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (10.2 K/9). The biggest flaw in the right-hander’s game is giving up contact. He’s on the hook for a lackluster 9.5 hits allowed per nine innings. However, those knocks don’t leave the yard very often (0.5 HR/9). Cavalli comes into this one having allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven appearances.
It’s no secret that the Guardians prefer to win their games with solid pitching and capable defense. However, this year’s crew has been decent, albeit unspectacular, at the plate. They’ve scored 234 runs, 16th-most in baseball, while leading the American League with 54 stolen bases. However, much of this group’s best work has come against lefties. Cleveland has put up the league’s third-worst slugging percentage vs. right-handed pitching (.361).
A lack of power could come back to haunt the Guardians against Cavalli. Washington’s hurler isn’t the most consistent, but he doesn’t allow hard contact very often. As for Cantillo, this is one of the more difficult assignments in all of baseball. The Nationals rank fifth in the sport with a .764 OPS against left-handed pitching. Following Monday’s blowout, the visitors are undervalued at plus money tonight.
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