The Phillies (19-22) and Red Sox (17-23) have fallen way short of expectations this season. However, both clubs have shown signs of life recently. Philadelphia has won six of its last eight games, while Boston has won four of its previous six contests. Now, these historic franchises will attempt to start the week on a high note with a victory on Tuesday.

The Phillies are favorites (-149) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction, preview

It’ll be none other than Zack Wheeler toeing the slab in Boston tonight. It’s no secret that the Phillies have begun turning things around with their ace back in the fold. Since the right-hander’s return on April 25th, Philadelphia has gone 11-4. That includes a 3-0 record during Wheeler’s trio of starts. During those games, the three-time All-Star has notched a 3.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 18 strikeouts. When healthy, few hurlers in the league have been better than the 36-year-old. Among pitchers to throw at least 400.0 innings since 2023, Wheeler ranks fifth in ERA (2.98), third in WHIP (0.99) and third in K% (29.1%).

Even if Wheeler suffers a rare off night, there’s a decent chance he receives some run support this evening. For all their star power, the Phillies have looked absolutely off at the plate for most of the season. Fortunately for Philadelphia, it looks like the tide is beginning to turn. Over their last ten games, the Fightins rank fourth in baseball with 52 runs scored. Six different hitters have an OPS of at least .800 during that stretch: Bryce Harper (1.260), Brandon Marsh (1.127), Alec Bohm (.922), Justin Crawford (.879), Kyle Schwarber (.871) and Bryson Stott (.842).

While nothing has been confirmed just yet, it looks like Boston will utilize an opener this evening. After an inning or two, expect struggling starter Brayan Bello to take the mound. It’s been a difficult 2026 for the right-hander; through 32.2 innings, he’s notched a 7.44 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. However, the Dominican delivered a seven-inning, one-run performance last week against Detroit. Bello has never been much of a strikeout artist; he’s notched a career 7.6 K/9 ratio. The soft-tosser has always out-performed his advanced metrics. However, this season has seen his numbers fall off of a cliff. Bello’s expected batting average (.310), expected slugging percentage (.560) and wOBA (.417) rank within the bottom four percent of all qualified pitchers.

As previously mentioned, runs can be difficult to come by against an arm of Wheeler’s caliber. That’s true for anyone, especially the home team on Tuesday. Despite some modest improvement, the Red Sox remain an underwhelming group on offense. They’re averaging 3.90 runs per game this season, fourth-lowest in all of baseball. Highly touted youngsters Roman Anthony (93 wRC+) and Marcelo Mayer (73 wRC+) have struggled at the plate. To boot, former All-Star Trevor Story (39 wRC+) has been a complete black hole at shortstop. Boston has accounted for an American League-worst .642 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Phillies vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

There’s no way I can justify backing the Red Sox this evening. For all of their modest improvement, these under-performers are coming off of a series loss at home against Tampa Bay. Factor in the erratic (at best) pitching of Bello, and it’s difficult to find any reason to support Boston. On the flip side, Philadelphia has gone 11-4 over its last 15 matchups. With the reliable Wheeler on the mound, expect a comfortable Phillies win.

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+113)