Stan Son breaks down the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade to the Miami Heat and gives his analysis.
As a prospect, Giannis Antetokounmpo was unique, due to his length, athleticism and skill. He was skinny and far from a sure thing, though, but the Milwaukee Bucks used the 15th overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft to take a shot. And boy did it pay off.
Antetokounmpo morphed into one of the best players in the league, bringing the second championship in Bucks history while racking up two regular season MVPs, a Finals MVP, 10 All-Star games, All-Star MVP, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year and a place on the NBA 75th Anniversary Team.
He dunked with ferocity over anyone who dared challenge him at the rim. He glided like a gazelle from one end of the court to the other, often requiring only a few steps and a dribble.
Often lauded for his loyalty to the team that drafted him and the city that embraced him, things began to fissure over the last few years as the losses started to mount while the light at the end of the championship tunnel looked to be bricked off.
Lava began to seep out of the fissures earlier this year when the Bucks began engaging in trade discussions for Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline. Then Bucks ownership finally announced that they were officially open for business in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
And they took their time, which was the prudent thing to do, trying to ascertain the best deal possible.
The Miami Heat and big game hunter, Pat Riley, were contenders from the outset. But the Boston Celtics gained steam recently, as talks of Jaylen Brown were included in a package. Five days ago, the Celtics were the favorites at -130 on DraftKings Sportsbook to acquire Antetokounmpo. As of Monday morning, the odds went down to -225.
— Julian Edlow (@julianedlow) June 22, 2026🚨 Giannis to the Celtics 📈
🏀 Open (+400)
🏀 This morning (+120)
🏀 Current (-225)23% of the bets for 28% of the money is on Giannis to land in Boston.
The Heat have still taken more money (44%) on just 16% of the bets.
Odds @DKSports
Then we finally got the Shams Bomb on Monday night:
BLOCKBUSTER: The Milwaukee Bucks are trading franchise icon Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to the Miami Heat for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, 3 first-round picks (including No. 13), 1 pick swap and 1 second-rounder, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/NQT5ZhdJU9
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 23, 2026
Antetokounmpo finally got his wish while Pat Riley continued to add to his legacy as one of the best big game hunters in the game.
Prior to the trade, the Heat were 30/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all. Now? 18/1. Boston went from +475 to +650 to win the 2026-27 NBA Championship.
The projected starting lineup for Miami is:
On paper, this should be an excellent defensive team. Mitchell is a very good point-of-attack defender while Wiggins has good length and size on the wing. Antetokounmpo and Adebayo will be like two pterodactyls patrolling the paint and limiting shots at the rim.
Offensively, Mitchell has proven that he can take care of the ball and run the offense. Powell is a bona fide bucket getter while Wiggins shot a career-high 41% from downtown last season. We know what Antetokounmpo does so Adebayo’s ability to now space the floor from beyond the arc is massive. Last season, Adebayo attempted 5.5 three-point attempts per game and converted at a 31% clip. With the attention that Antetokounmpo will garner from opposing defenses, Adebayo and the rest of the Heat should get plenty of open looks, which will likely increase the efficiency.
Now, Antetokounmpo will be 32 years old and has dealt with knee issues the last few years. He played only 36 games last season and has reached at least 70 games in a season just once in the last seven seasons.
The hope is that the Heat Culture, conditioning and a fresh start will rejuvenate Antetokounmpo. If so, the Heat just got a lot better.
Tyler Herro is a good player, but it can be argued that he and Norman Powell are similar. Kel’el Ware is an exciting young player, but he is still young, raw and was often in the Eric Spoelstra doghouse last season. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis are also nice, young players who showed flashes at times last season, but neither is likely to be a franchise-altering player. In a deep draft, the 13th overall pick could be someone.
The depth of the Heat has been severely depleted, but Pelle Larsson was very good last season and the Heat are high on his outlook. Simone Fontecchio has size and can space the floor while Nikola Jovic was signed to a massive extension and could be ready to elevate his game. He has very good size, skill and can space the floor. Keshad Johnson is an uber-athletic wing, so maybe the landscape isn’t so bad after all.
That said, in order to get, you must send. Riley is taking a gamble, and that implies risk, but the ceiling for the Heat has definitely been raised to heights that were unapproachable prior to this acquisition.
As for Milwaukee, the projected starting lineup will likely be:
Turner has been mentioned in trade rumors, so Ware would start at center if Turner is moved. In addition, Ware could also start alongside Turner with Kuzma moving to the bench for the microwave scorer off the bench role.
Regardless, the Bucks are going to be bad.
Last season, with Antetokounmpo out of the lineup, Milwaukee posted a 15-31 record with a -9.3 net rating. Antetokounmpo garnered a massive 37% usage rate and literally did it all….except hit his free throws.
Herro had a usage rate in the 25 to 28 percent range in Miami, and the same will likely manifest with the Bucks. Porter Jr. has the most juice and garnered a 25% usage rate last season, so the backcourt will likely do most of the heavy lifting on offense for the Bucks.
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