It’s mid-April, which means hope springs eternal across all of Major League Baseball. Nowhere is that more evident than in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. The Rays (11-7) currently lead the AL East, having won six straight games. Ditto for the Pirates (11-8), tied atop the jam-packed NL Central. Which of these two underdogs will keep the good times rolling on Friday?

The Pirates are favorites (-122) over the Rays, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rays vs. Pirates prediction, preview

On the mound, it’ll be a battle between youth and experience. For the visitors, Nick Martinez represents the latter. The former Reds hurler has done a solid job this season in St. Petersburg. Through 16.2 innings of work, the right-hander owns a 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 11 strikeouts. It’s not as if the veteran has been putting up those numbers against bottom-feeders, either. He surrendered a combined total of three earned runs against the Brewers and Yankees. Martinez isn’t much for generating whiffs, instead opting to induce lazy fly balls. That’s ideal for a matchup at PNC Park, one of baseball’s most difficult venues to hit home runs.

For most of the past decade, opposing pitchers have had the Pirates circled on their calendar. That may not be true in 2026; the Buccos rank tenth in the league with an average of 5.00 runs per game. New additions Brandon Lowe (171 wRC+), acquired from Tampa Bay, and Ryan O’Hearn (159 wRC+) have bolstered the lineup. The former’s seven home runs are second-most in the National League. In addition, Oneil Cruz has impressed at the plate. The somewhat streaky outfielder is slashing .316/.381/.566 with five dingers, 17 RBIs and nine stolen bases. Is this hot start for real? That’s difficult to say, but Cruz is undeniably talented. If he’s finally put it all together, Pittsburgh becomes a much more dangerous club.

It’ll be Bubba Chandler on the bump for the home team tonight. The former top prospect got a brief taste of the majors last season, but he was kept on an innings restriction. So far, manager Don Kelly is more comfortable letting the righty work deep into games. Through three starts (14.0 IP), Chandler has recorded a 3.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts. Unlike Martinez, the youngster beats opposing batters with blistering speed. He averages 99.0 MPH on his fastball, which he throws 60% of the time. Unfortunately, command has been an issue for the 23-year-old. A sky-high 7.7 BB/9 ratio is unsustainable going forward.

Granted, Friday’s opponents aren’t the most patient at the plate. Tampa Bay’s 9.0% walk rate ranks 20th in baseball. However, the team also owns the league’s lowest strikeout rate (18.2%). In short, the Rays will make a strong effort to put the ball in play, for better or worse. No player embodies this better than Yandy Diaz. The former batting champion is off to a blistering start this season. Through 70 at-bats, he’s posted a .371/.463/.557 slash line with three homers and 16 RBIs. Other big bats include All-Stars Junior Caminero (128 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (107 wRC+). The Rays are tied for third in baseball with a .264 team batting average.

Rays vs. Pirates pick, best bet

I’m a cautious believer in this new-look Pirates offense. However, this doesn’t look like an ideal matchup. Martinez, an NL Central veteran, has plenty of experience in this spot. Over his last 23.0 innings pitched vs. Pittsburgh, the 35-year-old has notched a minuscule 1.17 ERA. On the flip side, Chandler’s difficulty finding the plate is concerning. At plus money, there’s more value in backing the Rays this evening.

Best Bet: Rays ML (+102)