Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

The Cavs and Pistons will play a critical Game 5 in Detroit on Wednesday night, with the series tied 2-2. The home team has won and covered all four games of the series so far, as we wait to see if the Cavs can actually breakthrough on the road. A win away from home is required from Cleveland if it wants a chance at the series, but its performance in this postseason tells us it may not be coming.

While the Game 4 win over the Pistons improved the Cavs to a perfect 6-0 at home in these playoffs, including 5-1 ATS, the offense has fallen off a cliff outside of Cleveland. Scoring is down nearly 18 points per game for the Cavs on the road, compared to at home, and the Pistons have had a stingy defense at home this postseason. Cleveland managed just 101 and 97 points in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and will need to up that output if it plans to steal one as a road underdog.

Piled on top of the Cavs’ road struggles is that Detroit has been really good at home. The Pistons were caught off guard a bit my the Magic in the playoff opener, losing as a big home favorite in Game 1. Since then, Detroit is 5-0 SU and ATS on its home floor. The Pistons led both home games in this series by double digits at the half, and went on to win each of them by exactly 10 points.

While the money seems to be piling in on the Pistons at DraftKings Sportsbook, I can’t disagree with it and trust the Cavs on the road until I see it. I’ll back all the trends that point to the Pistons pulling ahead 3-2 in these Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, but without laying the points. After Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs went bonkers in the second half of Game 4, I’ll trust the Pistons to respond early — leading at halftime and going on to win the game.

NBA Pick: Pistons 1H ML/Full Game ML (-105)