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Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s slate of MLB action.
The Rays and Orioles meet in one of the earliest games of the day on this Memorial Day, as the division rivals face off at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Kyle Bradish starts for the home team, while Shane McClanahan will be on the mound for the Rays. Both pitchers have been strong in the first innings this year and throughout their careers.
Bradish will have the tough task of quieting the surging Rays, but he has allowed a first-inning run in only 18% of his 77 career starts. This year, he has spun nine shutout first innings in 10 starts. McClanahan has also been very good in the first inning this year, converting a scoreless frame in eight of his nine outings, including each of his last five.
Both teams have also been strong NRFI targets, with the Orioles ranking fourth in the MLB with a 58.5% NRFI hit rate and the Rays also in the top 10 with a 54% NRFI rate.
Random things can always happen in the first inning, which is what makes these quick-hitters so exciting, but unless something odd happens, this looks like a great place to start your NRFI strategy for this Monday, since both teams and both starting pitchers are strong plays for this prop.
Getting even money on any NRFI is unusual, but this Yankees-Royals matchup in Kansas City is actually a great place for some value. This afternoon in the series opener, veteran Michael Wacha will start for Kansas City, while the Yankees give the ball to Will Warren in the bottom half of the first inning.
Wacha will have the difficult task of silencing the Yankees bats, but he has a strong history in the first inning throughout his career, working a scoreless first in 219 of his 298 career starts (73.5%). This year, he has not allowed a run in the first inning of nine of his 10 starts, tying him with Bradish and Jesus Luzardo for the highest NRFI rate of all Monday’s probable starting pitchers. Wacha has not allowed a first-inning run in any of his last five starts and has been very strong overall for KC this year, going 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 3.87 FIP in his 10 outings. He faced the Yankees earlier this year and went six innings allowing two earned runs, none in the first inning.
On the other side, Will Warren is 6-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 10 starts and has not allowed a run in the first inning of either of his 10 outings. He went seven innings and allowed two runs in his first start of the season against KC, with a clean first frame in that contest. The Royals’ offense has struggled, so it isn’t surprising that they have been a top-10 team for NRFI overall, even after back-to-back games missing on NRFI in their last two games.
The late games have some shaky NRFI options, but the first of the evening matchups looks solid as the Phillies roll into Petco Park to take on the Padres this weekend in a big National League showdown. In the first game of the series, Jesus Luzardo gets the call against Randy Vasquez.
Vasquez will take the mound first and have to navigate the power-packed top of the Phillies order. He has pitched scoreless innings in eight of his 10 first innings this season and an above-average 75.4% scoreless first innings in his career. Vasquez has struggled a little bit at home this year, but overall, he ha a 2.96 ERA and 3.67 FIP based on his career-best 1.19 WHIP.
For the Phillies, Luzardo has been very inconsistent, with some dominating outings and a few disasters as well. However, he has typically been solid in the first inning, either way the start goes after that. He has allowed a run in the first inning only one time in his 10 starts this season, and his 2.85 FIP indicates some positive regression could be coming for his 4.85 ERA.
The Padres have been the best team in the majors for NRFI this season, with a 65.4% hit rate, while the Phillies have been just below league average at 47.2%, but they do have a three-game NRFI streak coming into this series.
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