Allan Nascimento is facing Mitch Raposo in a three-round Flyweight contest at tonight’s UFC Fight Night Prelims. Nascimento has won four consecutive fights, while Raposo is coming off a victory against Azat Maksum. This week’s UFC Fight Night Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Check out my best bet for Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

Allan Nascimento to Win by Submission or Decision (-160)

Raposo, 27, is 10-3 with seven finishes and recently snapped his two-fight losing streak at UFC 321 in October 2025. Nascimento trains at Chute Boxe Diego Lima in Brazil, the gym of former UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira. In October 2021, Nascimento lost his UFC debut, but since then has been more consistent, with two unanimous decision wins and two submissions. 

In this contest, Nascimento is a -175 favorite with Raposo being a +145 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -195 and the under at +150. This contest is -160 to go the distance and +120 to last the full scheduled 15 minutes.

Nascimento has a massive five-inch reach advantage (69″ vs. 64″) and is three inches taller (5’8″ vs. 5’5″). On the feet, Nascimento is the much better striker, averaging more strikes per minute (3.08 vs. 1.73) and being 19 percent more accurate. On the ground, Raposo lands 1.28 more takedowns per 15 minutes and has better takedown accuracy. Although Raposo has the edge statistically, Nascimento is still skilled on the ground, with 16 career submissions. 21 of Nascimento’s 22 career victories have come by submission or decision. With that being said, I’m taking him at -160 to win by submission or decision at -160.

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