The 2026 Madrid Open semi-finals take place on Thursday for the WTA. There is a highly anticipated match between American Hailey Baptiste and the highest-ranked player left in the field, Mirra Andreeva.

Mirra Andreeva is -287 to win the match, while Hailey Baptiste is listed at +226 on DraftKings Sportsbook to pull off the upset. The match begins at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Hailey Baptiste vs. Mirra Andreeva Prediction

In the quarter-finals, Hailey Baptiste pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year in tennis. Baptiste took down defending Madrid Open champion and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. It was the biggest win of Baptiste’s young career, but it was the pinnacle of a trend of great play in 2026. Baptiste made it to the quarter-finals at the Miami Open, her best-ever finish at a WTA 1000 event or Grand Slam. It also moved her record to 3-0 this year against top-10 players. Baptiste defeated Elina Svitolina in Miami and has now defeated both Jasmine Paolini and Sabalenka here in Madrid. Another top-10 player stands in her way as Hailey Baptiste looks for a career-defining title in Madrid.

Mirra Andreeva is now the highest-ranked player left in this WTA Madrid Open field after a flurry of upsets over the top-ranked player. Andreeva is the No. 8 player in the world at just 19 years old. Andreeva has proven that she can play at the highest level of the sport at an incredibly young age. She has also thrived on clay early on in her career. Her only career Grand Slam semi-final appearance was at Roland Garros in 2024, and then she made it to the quarter-finals in 2025. Andreeva had an exceptional 2025, becoming the youngest woman to ever win a WTA 1000 event in Dubai. She followed that up by winning a second WTA 1000 event at Indian Wells. Andreeva is now the favorite to win in Madrid and add a third WTA 1000 title to her resume before turning 20 years old.

Hailey Baptiste vs. Mirra Andreeva Pick, Best Bet

My best bet is on Mirra Andreeva to win by a score of two sets to zero. Hailey Baptiste’s win over Aryna Sabalenka was remarkable, and Baptiste has been great against top-tier competition this year. However, Baptiste has never made it this deep into a tournament this big. The stakes, pressure and fatigue will only continue to build. There also could be a bit of a let-down from Baptiste after winning the biggest match of her life. If any of those negative effects take hold of Baptiste, Mirra Andreeva will take advantage of it. At a young age, she has proven to be a killer.

These two women have only faced off once before. That match came in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon last year. Andreeva soundly defeated Baptiste 6-1, 6-3. She clearly demonstrated that she was on a different level than Baptiste. There should be a similar result here as Andreeva looks to move on to the 2026 Madrid Open final.

Best Bet: Mirra Andreeva to win 2:0 (-115)