Keagan Smith provides a series preview, prediction and pick for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights in the Western Conference Final of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
After a month of action in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Western Conference Final has arrived at long last. One side of this matchup won’t surprise anyone as the Colorado Avalanche dominated the regular season en route to the Presidents’ Trophy before cruising through the first two rounds. Their challenger is the Vegas Golden Knights, who emerged from an atypically weak Pacific Division but turned up the competitiveness come postseason time in an admittedly easier side of the bracket. Still, questions remain about whether they can put up much of a fight against a superior opponent.
Here’s a detailed look at this Avalanche vs. Golden Knights series, including a preview, betting odds, and a top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Avalanche have been on fire virtually all season, and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs. This team ran through the first round of the postseason without any issue, sweeping the Los Angeles Kings in a clean four-game set. While their offense didn’t stand out as usual in that series, the scorers certainly showed up in round two. In a very difficult matchup against a Central Division buzzsaw, the Minnesota Wild, Colorado once again handled business with a gentleman’s sweep in five games, only dropping one on the road. Against significantly stiffer competition, the Avalanche outscored their opponent 24-18 with three wins by multiple goals, scoring at least four goals in all but one game.
What can we learn from their Stanley Cup Playoff run so far? The most obvious answer is that this team is favored to win the whole thing for a reason, coming in at +130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Of course, the Avs were favored to hoist the Cup for practically the entire 2025-26 campaign, so this doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Still, the dominant showing against Minnesota — a true contender — provides proof of concept that this group will perform up to par even against the best.
So, let’s dive into some numbers. We know that Colorado led the NHL in both goals for (3.63) and against (2.40) per game during the regular season, also pacing the league in shots on goal (33.7). That two-way prowess hasn’t changed in the playoffs, with this team pacing the field in scoring with 4.11 goals per game while conceding 2.56 on the other end. The shot volume remains high at 32.6 SOG per game and they’ve limited attempts as well, allowing 26.1 a night. In 5v5 situations, the Avalanche leads the playoffs with a 57.33% xGoals%, the second-best xGF/60, and the third-best xGA/60 as well. They’re fifth in high-danger shots for and continue to excel on the rush as well, a deadly element of the offensive attack. While the power play was seemingly the team’s lone weakness in the regular season with a paltry 17.1% PP%, they’re also up to a 25.0% clip (6-for-24) in the postseason as well. A 79.3% PK% on the other end may not be the most impressive, but there are no clear weaknesses heading into the Western Conference Final.
Of course, Nathan MacKinnon leads the team with 13 points (7G/13A) this postseason, followed by Martin Necas with 11 points (1G/10A). What’s surprising is that Cale Makar has just five points (4G/1A) despite leading the team in TOI and bringing the repertoire of one of the sport’s most elite offensive blueliners, but other players have stepped up their own production to make up for it. At eight points apiece are captain Gabriel Landeskog (3G/5A) and Devon Toews (2G/6A), while three other skaters have six points apiece. The situation in the net could get interesting too. It appears Scott Wedgewood is positioned as the starter once again after going 7-1 with a 2.21 GAA and .914 SV%, but head coach Jared Bednar may not hesitate to bench him if needed. Mackenzie Blackwood briefly took over as the starter in the Avs’ net and did win a game, but delivered an .872 SV% and 3.20 GAA over three appearances.
If you read our previous write-up over the Golden Knights’ second-round series, you know by now that this team drastically underperformed during the regular season due to a couple of reasons. They failed to reach 100 points and ended with just 95, but that was enough to win a weak Pacific Division and secure a first-round matchup against a Wild Card squad, the Utah Mammoth. Vegas took that series in six games, rallying from down 2-1 to win three straight and advance. The Golden Knights then followed it up with a series win over the Anaheim Ducks, who were scrappy but ultimately couldn’t match the extensive postseason experience of this Vegas roster. That seasoning should prove extremely valuable heading into this series.
The Golden Knights’ odds to win the Stanley Cup now sit at +600. That’s an understandable line given the tough matchup in this Western Conference Final, and it certainly isn’t impossible that they’ll advance and have a shot at emerging as champs. However, getting through Colorado is a tough sell for a couple of reasons.
After producing just 2.95 goals per game during the regular season, Vegas’ postseason average sits at 3.67, the third most among the playoff field. That’s a very encouraging sign for the club’s ability to keep pace on the scoreboard, as is the fact that they’re second in high-danger shots for in 5v5 play. In the same situations, the Golden Knights’ xGF/60 of 2.48 is sixth of the 16 postseason teams, but they have an -0.76 goals for above expected that doesn’t bode as well for the scoring outlook. As such, the defense must rise to the occasion, which isn’t out of the question. Vegas allowed 2.95 goals per game in the regular season and has tightened that mark up to just 2.58, fourth best, but their 5v5 xGA/60 of 2.48 is 13th among Stanley Cup Playoff teams. However, the group has allowed more shot attempts per game (29.3) than it’s taking (27.5), so that corsi trend is one to keep an eye one, as is the play of the goalie — more on him in a moment. If nothing else, physicality is no issue for this group as well, so watch for them to exact a toll on the Avs from the jump. As far as special teams goes, the Golden Knights have a 25.7% PP% (9-for-35) and an excellent 86.8% mark on the PK.
At the individual level, Mitch Marner is enjoying a stellar first postseason with Vegas as he brings a playoff-best 18 points (7G/11A) into the third round. Star center Jack Eichel is second on the team with 15 points (1G/14A), and while his shooting percentage of 2.9% is absolutely abysmal, some positive regression there feels imminent. Pavel Dorofeyev leads the postseason in goals with 11 points (9G/2A) in total and Brett Howden is close behind with the second-most shots put in net, plus 10 points (8G/2A). Shea Theodore (4G/5A) and Ivan Barbashev (3G/6A) have nine points each. Now, for the netminder. Carter Hart has appeared in all 12 games for Vegas, totaling a 2.37 GAA and .917 SV%. Following a rough first series, he stepped up his game in round two with just one game below a .926 SV%, but he remains streaky overall.
The Avalanche are favored to win this second-round series at -260 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. On the other side, the Golden Knights are +210 underdogs to emerge from this best-of-seven.
These teams squared off three times during the regular season, with a relatively even split of one regulation win, one regulation loss, and an overtime matchup across that span. Colorado did emerge victorious in that game that went into an extra period, and in the season series, outscored Vegas 12-10. Notably, the Avs outshot the Knights in every game of that three-contest sample by a 97-77 margin as well, also stopping 9-of-13 power-play chances while going 1-for-6 on the man advantage themselves.
There’s a multitude of reasons the Avalanche are favored to win this best-of-seven, and after seeing them dismantle a Wild team that’s far superior to their Western Conference Final opponent, it’s tough to pick against them. In fact, it’s difficult to even talk oneself into a close series at all given just how dominant Colorado is. The Avs have significantly more speed in their lines and a much better defensive core, also bringing more star power at the top even if Makar appears to be potentially playing through an injury of some sort. They’re aggressive on the attack and tend to dominate possession, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get out on the breakaway and push the tempo — we’ve seen all-too often that MacKinnon can swing a game nearly singlehandedly in that regard. With the power play looking much better in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (albeit in a relatively small sample) than in the regular season, there’s not a single area you can point to and identify as a weakness.
Now, there are avenues for Vegas to keep this competitive and even win the series, but those will require the stars to align above The Fortress in Sin City and perhaps a spell or two from an Etsy witch. The Golden Knights’ penalty kill could very well stymie their opponent when given the chance and make Colorado’s man advantage look more like the regular-season version. If that doesn’t happen, it surely won’t be a close series, though it may not be one to begin with. Vegas will have to be physical from the first puck drop, block plenty of shots and create high-danger looks to get the better of Wedgewood, who was one of the best netminders in the NHL this season. Beyond that, Hart will have to hold up in the face of the league’s most formidable offense, which is another very difficult sell. That’s where the series may very well swing, especially if he doesn’t get enough defensive support from the skaters in front of him. Finally, the Golden Knights will need their offense to stay hot night in and night out. If they don’t — or if Eichel can’t snap his cold streak as a goalscorer — this could get way out of hand.
Vegas’ two series victories in the Stanley Cup Playoffs so far have made for a nice little story for their fanbase after a rough regular season. Unfortunately for them, knights don’t always win in fairy tales. The Avalanche should fully take over this best-of-seven, so the top pick for this one feels like Colorado by -1.5 in the series spread market.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。