Keagan Smith gives his best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook along with a prediction and pick for Friday’s FIFA World Cup match between the United States and Australia.
As the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues, we’re diving into each and every matchup to find value for bettors. The chatter is building around the United States’ ability to make a run in this tournament following a dominant opening-match victory. Now, they face off against Australia, which also left its first game with a win to open Group D competition.
Kickoff for USA vs. Australia is scheduled for Friday, June 19 at 3 p.m. ET in Seattle. Let’s dive in for a top prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this 2026 FIFA World Cup match.
In the official FIFA rankings, the United States sits at 15th in the world. That largely seems about right given that they made it to the Round of 16 back in 2022 and have a much better manager at the helm in Mauricio Pochettino. The side sits 12th in odds to win the tournament outright on DraftKings Sportsbook at +4000.
It’s hard for American fans to not feel at least a little optimistic about their team’s prospects moving forward. While the opening goal of their first Group D game against Paraguay came via an own goal in their favor, the USMNT then drubbed the opposition with a pair of first-half shots from Folarin Balogun before Giovanni Reyna capped off the 4-1 win in the 98th minute. The dust settled with a dominant first showing from the USA in their home nation, while a 3-2 win over Senegal and a 2-1 loss to Germany in their two most recent friendly matches also showed how competitive this team can be.
The status of Christian Pulisic is one to monitor after he left the first fixture due to injury at the half, but he’s expected to ramp up his activity in the coming days. As for the remainder of the squad, it’s clear this might be a new level as far as tactics go. Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro was highly complimentary of the USMNT’s effort and specifically mentioned the play-driving from the pentagon formed between Balogun at the top, Pulisic and Weston McKennie on the wings, and central midfielders Malik Tillman and Tyler Adams.
On the opposite side are Australia, who come in at 22nd in the latest version of FIFA’s world rankings and also made the Round of 16 back in 2022.
For the Aussies, Group D play began with a 2-0 victory over Turkey in which Nestory Irankunda scored the opening goal at 27′ before Connor Metcalfe added insurance at 75′. The side secured three points against a similarly ranked opponent that falls 26th in the world, but it wasn’t an effort which one could call dominant at any level. Australia was outshot 28-8, put only four shots on target, completed just 75% of passes and lost the possession battle at a paltry 37%. They struck when it mattered most on the counter, but were also sloppy with 12 fouls as well. That kind of performance is one that they’d probably like to forget.
Now, Australia does have some talent of its own. Mohamed Toure notched 12 goal involvements in 11 appearances in the English Championship, while Irankunda had eight goal involvements in 22 games while largely coming off the bench in the same league. They’ll be their national squad’s talismans here. The back line is strong as well while emphasizing creation of counterattacking chances, anchored by Harry Souttar at centerback. The surprise of the first game was also goaltender Patrick Beach, who started over longtime captain Matthew Ryan, who has three previous World Cup nods under his belt.
That likely won’t be enough for Australia to emerge with an upset against the USMNT, though. They were outright sloppy in the opening fixture and will need to find their form quickly against the American side, which will be able to punish them far more effectively than Turkey did in that first game. The USA has more talent to begin with too, especially seeing as we’re yet to mention Antonee Robinson, Tim Ream and Timothy Weah. The host nation of this match should prevail.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Americans are a -170 favorite on the Moneyline while Australia holds +450 odds of an outright upset. Odds of a draw sit at +340. We’re forgoing those options, though, instead targeting the United States at -1.5 on the spread. This should be a fun fixture, but it’s one in which the USMNT will put plenty of pressure on the Australians and eventually break through the cracks in the defense.
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