Sunday’s home run board spreads its heat across three afternoons. Nationals Park puts Gavin Sheets in the No. 2 spot against a Zack Littell profile leaking barrels. Progressive Field catches Jarren Duran in the middle of a five-homer, 10-game flare against Tanner Bibee. Busch Stadium offers Jordan Walker the left-handed look from Jordan Wicks once his starting place is confirmed. The thread is simple and loud: hitters already generating damaging air contact, pitchers leaving enough lift on the table, and plus-money prices worth living with the variance.

Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to swat one out.

Top MLB Home Run Props today

Gavin Sheets to hit a home run (+465)

Gavin Sheets has supplied the steady power San Diego has needed through an erratic offensive opening. He enters Sunday hitting .252 with nine home runs, 23 RBI, 22 runs and an .827 OPS, then steps into the No. 2 spot between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. That placement matters for a home-run wager: Sheets should see maximum plate appearances, with Zack Littell forced to challenge him before the middle of the Padres order arrives.

The contact evidence supports the power. Sheets has posted an 89.7 mph average exit velocity, a 46.6% hard-hit rate, a 9.3% barrel rate and a .345 xwOBA. He has enough lift and strength to punish a pitch left in his damage window. Littell has supplied those pitches far too often. Washington’s right-hander carries a 5.23 ERA while allowing a 93.0 mph average exit velocity, 47.1% hard-hit rate, 12.3% barrel rate and .392 xwOBA. His contact profile has turned routine innings into sudden crooked numbers.

Sheets gets the platoon advantage, premium lineup volume and a starter yielding airborne damage with alarming frequency. At +465, one clean left-handed swing can turn a vulnerable Littell mistake into the defining blow of the afternoon.

Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+490)

Jordan Walker has spent the opening two months turning his immense physical promise into relentless production. The Cardinals outfielder enters Sunday with 15 home runs, 42 RBI, a .296 average and a .568 slugging percentage. His damage has substance underneath it: a 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 52.3% hard-hit rate, 15.2% barrel rate, .404 wOBA and .384 xwOBA. When Walker elevates the ball, it tends to stay hit. His 31 career major-league homers have averaged 105.1 mph off the bat and traveled 409 feet.

Sunday gives that violence an inviting trigger. Jordan Wicks returned to Chicago’s rotation after beginning the season on the injured list, then surrendered eight runs across 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. The left-hander has permitted a 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 47.1% hard-hit rate, 11.8% barrel rate and .373 xwOBA in his limited major-league sample this year. That is dangerous traffic against a right-handed slugger producing barrels in bunches.

Walker’s +490 home-run number is contingent on his place in the official Cardinals lineup. Once he is confirmed, the setup is immediate: premium impact contact, a favorable handedness matchup and a returning starter already allowing balls to be struck with home-run force.

Jarren Duran to hit a home run (+620)

Jarren Duran’s season has changed shape in a hurry. After a quiet start interrupted the rhythm of Boston’s leadoff engine, his bat has erupted through the final stretch of May. Duran is 16-for-46 with five home runs and 13 RBI across his last 10 games. He has eight homers this month, went 12-for-34 with seven RBI over his last seven, and punctuated Saturday’s 9-1 win in Cleveland with a three-run homer in the ninth inning.

The swing surge arrives with the right kind of opportunity. Duran is confirmed atop the Red Sox order against Tanner Bibee, giving him the platoon advantage and as many trips through the box as Boston can create. His full-season batted-ball profile includes a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and an 11.9% barrel rate, enough foundation for this recent burst to carry home-run credibility rather than read as empty noise.

Bibee has not kept contact quiet. Cleveland’s right-hander enters at 0-7 with a 4.57 ERA and has allowed a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 46.0% hard-hit rate, 10.1% barrel rate and .330 xwOBA. Duran is arriving early, swinging with authority and finding the seats repeatedly. At +620, the price rewards one more elevated mistake meeting his revived left-handed power.