Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Wednesday’s HRR board rewards hitters sitting in real run environments instead of one-swing lottery spots. Los Angeles has the late-night pressure point after a 15-run, five-homer eruption, Milwaukee gets William Contreras in the middle of a contact heater against a hittable Dustin May, and Kansas City gives Ben Rice another warm-air runway after the Yankees’ 24-hit avalanche. Casey Schmitt’s San Francisco surge has turned him into a legitimate multi-category prop bat, while Kyle Schwarber gets a legal 2+ number against a Walker Buehler profile that has been giving opponents too many innings with traffic. These are bats with current production, RBI access, and enough damage in the swing to turn one mistake into a finished HRR slip.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Andy Pages has become one of the cleaner HRR bats on the board because his recent production is living in every category at once. He enters with 143 hits+runs+RBI, and the recent surge has been exactly what this market needs: 11 hits, two HR, 11 RBI and nine runs over his last 10 games, a 31-HRR run that combines contact, run scoring and middle-order traffic. The last week has been even louder, with eight hits, six runs, seven RBI, two HR, four doubles, a .333 average and .750 slugging. Los Angeles just hammered Colorado for 15 runs and five homers, and Pages was right in the middle of the movement with a four-hit night and a homer. Tomoyuki Sugano has already been tagged by this Dodgers group for a .424 average, .542 wOBA, 94.3 mph average exit velocity and .819 expected slugging, which gives Pages a live lane through hits and RBI before the home run swing even enters the picture. At +129, his 3+ HRR number is tied to a hitter whose role and recent box scores have both caught up to the quality of the matchup.
William Contreras brings the kind of contact-heavy HRR profile that can survive without a homer. His season total sits at 123 hits+runs+RBI, and his last 10 games show a hitter constantly involved in Milwaukee’s scoring: 17 hits, one HR, seven RBI and seven runs, good for 31 combined HRR. Over the last week, he has been even sharper with 10 hits, five runs, six RBI, one HR, a .526 average, .571 OBP and .737 slugging across five games. That matters for a 3+ line because Contreras can get there with two singles and a run, a double and an RBI, or one multi-hit night with traffic around him. Dustin May enters at 3-5 with a 5.00 ERA, giving Milwaukee a starter it can pressure early if the top half keeps putting runners on base. Contreras has the middle-lineup role, the current hit volume and enough RBI runway to justify climbing above the standard 2+ line. At +149, the payout matches the ask better than most of the shorter, more obvious HRR names on the slate.
Ben Rice gets the Yankee power-and-traffic lane at a number that still carries life. His season total is 124 hits+runs+RBI, and the broader profile explains why a 3+ HRR line is in play whenever the Yankees offense gets moving: 16 HR, 33 RBI, a near-.980 OPS, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 51.6% hard-hit rate, .417 wOBA, .402 expected wOBA and an 18.0% barrel rate. His last 10 games have been steadier than spectacular, with eight hits, two HR, four RBI and six runs, but Tuesday’s 15-1 Yankees win changed the immediate setting. New York piled up 24 hits and six homers, every starter had at least two hits, and Rice collected three hits in the middle of the avalanche. Noah Cameron’s matchup sheet against this current Yankees group is dangerous: .286 average, .480 wOBA, 96.4 mph average exit velocity, .305 expected average, .811 expected slugging and .486 expected wOBA. Rice also owns a .952 OPS vs. left-handed pitching with five HR in 60 plate appearances, keeping the lefty-lefty look from killing the angle.
Casey Schmitt’s number is the cleanest short ask on the board because the market still leaves even money on a hitter in the middle of a massive surge. He has 110 hits+runs+RBI for the season, but the current run is the real story: 16 hits, six HR, 13 RBI and nine runs over his last 10 games, a 38-HRR burst that would play in any lineup context. Over the last week, he has eight hits, six runs, 10 RBI, four HR, a .320 average and .880 slugging, giving him a 4.00 HRR-per-game pace in that stretch. Michael Soroka’s 3.27 ERA keeps the matchup from being a pure attack spot, but Schmitt’s swing has been loud enough to carry the bet shape by itself. He homered again Tuesday, has 12 HR on the season, and keeps finding ways into both run production and RBI chances. The beauty of 2+ HRR at +100 is the simplicity: a solo homer, a double with a runner aboard, or a single and run all get him there.
Kyle Schwarber’s 2+ HRR price lands inside the playable range because the matchup and recent power form line up cleanly. He enters with 118 hits+runs+RBI, 21 HR, and the kind of hard-contact profile that can finish this prop with one swing. His last 10 games add current fuel: 10 hits, four HR, nine RBI and six runs, a 25-HRR stretch with the homer and RBI lanes doing most of the work. Walker Buehler gives Philadelphia a clear pressure point, entering at 3-2 with a 5.05 ERA, and the Phillies’ left-handed pocket can create immediate run/RBI traffic if Schwarber and Bryce Harper are seeing runners in front of them. Petco Park adds some resistance, so the 2+ line is the right shape. Schwarber can cash with a solo homer, a walk and run plus an RBI, or one extra-base hit in a crooked inning. At -115, the price stays inside the range while capturing a hitter whose recent production has been built around the two categories that matter most for this market: power and run creation.
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