The Orioles and Marlins meet at loanDepot Park with matching 16-20 records, both trying to pull a wobbly first week of May back toward level ground. Baltimore’s 9-7 win Tuesday snapped a five-game skid, but it also asked the bullpen to cover five innings after Chris Bassitt allowed four runs on six hits and three walks. Miami lost anyway, yet the offense kept punching: Liam Hicks went 4-for-5 with a homer and three RBI, Otto Lopez also went deep, and the Marlins reached seven runs in a controlled dome environment rather than a wind-aided park. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Baltimore Orioles.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Marlins vs. Orioles prediction, preview

The mound gap explains why Miami is favored, but the scoring angle lives on Brandon Young’s side. Eury Pérez is the cleaner arm at 2-3, 4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 39 strikeouts, 16 walks and six homers allowed in 36.1 innings. Young is working with a much thinner margin: 2-1, 6.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 19 hits, five walks, three homers and only nine strikeouts in 14.2 innings. The Statcast page is even more direct. Young is allowing a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 46.3% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, .354 wOBA and .372 xwOBA, and that comes with a strikeout profile that has not been sharp enough to erase traffic. I grade this as distributed scoring rather than weather-driven scoring: Miami only needs Young to keep allowing loud balls in play.

Miami’s lineup fits that assignment better than its season record suggests. Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins are hitting .261 with a .738 OPS, ranking 11th in MLB in OPS against righties, and Hicks has been the best bat in that split with a 1.063 OPS and .349 average in 100 plate appearances. The broader player layer gives this total more than one path. Hicks owns the team lead with eight HR and 32 RBI, plus a .321 average, .947 OPS, .403 wOBA, .381 xwOBA, 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 41.4% hard-hit rate. Lopez brings the contact-quality spine at .333 with an .871 OPS, and Statcast has him at 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 45.9% hard-hit rate, .381 wOBA and .341 xwOBA. Xavier Edwards adds the table-setting piece at .333/.425/.462, and that OBP becomes more valuable against a pitcher whose current profile invites baserunners and damage behind them.

Orioles vs. Marlins pick, best bet

LoanDepot does not hand out cheap homers, Young’s major-league sample is still small, and the Marlins are more run-chain than mash machine with only 27 HR as a team compared with Baltimore’s 39. That is the miss path: Miami piles up singles, strands runners, and a deep fly dies under the roof. The answer is that Young’s profile isn’t thus far built for clean escape work. His batted-ball sheet shows a 33.3% sweet-spot rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, 90.7 mph average exit velocity and only modest swing-and-miss support; Tuesday’s game also showed how quickly Miami’s contact pressure can reappear late, with Hicks and Lopez hitting back-to-back homers in the seventh and the Marlins tying the game in the eighth. The Orioles’ own team pitching line is stretched, too: 4.99 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .274 opponent average, and Ryan Helsley is on the 15-day IL after opening the season with a 2.53 ERA, 15 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP in 10.2 innings.

That is why the best shape is Marlins team total over 4.5 runs at +105, rather than Marlins ML -136, Marlins -1.5 +153, or the full-game over 8.5. The moneyline needs Miami to protect a lead with Pete Fairbanks also on the 15-day IL. The run line asks for margin in a game where Pérez has allowed six homers and the Marlins’ leverage group is missing its closer. The full-game over needs Baltimore to contribute against the better starter. Miami’s team total isolates the weakest arm, the better right-handed-pitching split, and an Orioles bullpen that ranks 26th by ERA at 4.86 with a 1.380 WHIP, 10 saves, four blown saves and a 71.4% save rate. It is the cleanest way to bet the game’s most attackable matchup without paying favorite tax or depending on Baltimore’s offense.

Best bet: Marlins team total over 4.5 runs +105. The ticket dies if Young’s command is sharper than his profile, Miami turns contact into empty traffic, and the dome swallows the one swing that should change the inning. The better full-game math still points toward five runs: Young’s 6.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .372 xwOBA allowed and hard-contact profile meet a Marlins lineup with three top-half bats carrying .871, .887 and .947 OPS marks, plus late access to a Baltimore staff that already had to survive a bullpen-heavy opener.

Projected score: Marlins 6, Orioles 4.

Best bet: Marlins TT o4.5 runs (+100) vs. Orioles

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!