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Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s full 15-game slate: Mike Trout, Elly De La Cruz and Jordan Walker.
Let’s break them down.
Trout only has one home run in his last 10 games, but I get the impression that he could get hot in an instant. At least, that’s what a 99th percentile expected wOBA (.432) and a 99th percentile barrel rate (22.9%) suggest. A matchup with Slade Cecconi probably doesn’t hurt his chances at finding the seats, either. Cleveland’s left-hander has struggled to a 6.15 ERA in 2026, and a massive reason for his underwhelming stats is an inability to keep the ball in the yard — especially when facing RHBs. To wit, righties are averaging 2.50 long balls per nine off Cecconi with a .608 slugging percentage and a .431 wOBA. Trout should feast early on in this contest.
After an explosive start to the season, De La Cruz hasn’t hit a home run in his last 12 games. Still, it’s undeniable that the former top prospect’s profile is so much better in 2026 than it was in 2025. Where De La Cruz’s expected wOBA (.322), expected slugging percentage (.424) and hard hit rate (44.2%) were all hovering around the 50th percentile last year, all three are now hovering around the 90th percentile. The long balls will come, especially at Great American Ball Park, where the shortstop is slashing .346/.418/.642 with a .296 ISO and a 187 wRC+. Specific to Tuesday, a matchup with Miles Mikolas is also a boost. The veteran RHP has never been one to miss bats, and he comes into tonight’s tilt allowing 2.48 opponent home runs per nine. Woof.
I keep waiting for the bubble to burst with Walker, and it just won’t happen. The 23-year-old is a classic case of elite tools finally giving way to an elite level of success. Look no further than Walker’s 100th percentile bat speed (78.7), which has translated into a 99th percentile average exit velocity (95.2) and a 96th percentile barrel rate (18.8%). Heck, it’s May 12, and Walker already has as many home runs in 2026 (11) as he’s had in the last two seasons combined. He’ll look to add to that total this evening in an opposite-hand matchup with Jeffrey Springs at the always hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Springs has surrendered seven long balls in his last four starts. That’s a pattern I wouldn’t mind continuing against the Cardinals.
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