The WNBA playoff race is going to be a dogfight all of 2026. The Mercury and Tempo both hope to be in the mix, with proven stars and elite coaching to get the most out of their rosters. This is going to be an early-season slugfest.

Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET. The Mercury are 7.5-point home favorites with -298 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Tempo upset is priced at +240. The game total is set at O/U 171.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Tempo-Mercury game.

Tempo vs. Mercury Preview

The Tempo went into this season with a clear plan: hit the ground running. So far, so good. Toronto is building through the backcourt, signing Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey to pile up buckets in addition to drafting Kiki Rice. Sykes’ defense at the point of attack is a tone-setter, as is her foul drawing; Sykes has drawn a whopping 44 free throws through four games. Mabrey can be streaky, but when she gets her perimeter shot going, she is very difficult to stop. Rice is off to a good start as a rookie, giving them a three-headed snake out of the backcourt.

Down the roster is where the issues come. Julie Allemand is a guard being asked to fill more of a wing-type role, with mixed results. Maria Conde, drafted in the expansion draft for a second straight season, hasn’t been a reliable enough scorer to justify her minutes. Nyara Sabally looks like a shrewd expansion pick, but is being asked to do a lot. If Temi Fagbenle continues to struggle with her health, the Tempo will continue to have a size problem.

For the Mercury, this season was about staying relevant. Losing the 2025 WNBA Finals before losing Satou Sabally in free agency was devastating, leaving behind an aging core short on depth. Alyssa Thomas remains a two-way force, and Kahleah Copper can get buckets with the best of them, but the rest of the roster was a big question mark. Would DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb continue to get it done late into their 30s? Can anyone else on the roster step up?

Early on, they may have found an answer. 28-year-old undrafted rookie Jovana Nogić has been a revelation, forcing her way into the starting lineup. Her scorching shooting and competitive defense has made a significant difference for Phoenix in the early portion of the season.

These rosters have distinctly different builds. Phoenix has the frontcourt size and skill between AT and DeWanna, but they’re not exactly mobile at their age. Toronto will look to spread the floor and get out in transition, which could pose issues for the Mercury. But the Tempo has very little answer for the AT high-post offense, the main jumping-off point for the Mercury’s half-court offense. A real clash of styles always brings interesting results.

Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?

Tempo vs. Mercury Pick, Best Bet

It’s difficult to ignore the value of the Tempo here. Sandy Brondello brings a floor to this team as a championship-level coach who knows how to get the most out of her roster, and the backcourt adds a high-end variability to the offense. Phoenix is predictable on both ends: strong defensive floor, low offensive ceiling. Perhaps that formula wins out, but at +240, I love taking a gamble on the Tempo a second straight road win.

Best Bet: Toronto Tempo Moneyline (+240)