The Mets and Nationals get the rubber game in Washington with the series already feeling like it has been played inside a pinball machine. New York is 21-27, Washington is 24-25, and the first two games produced 38 combined runs, a 12-inning Mets avalanche, a Nationals comeback from 5-0 down, Bo Bichette’s two-homer night, Juan Soto’s return-fire swing, and James Wood turning a ball in the gap into an inside-the-park grand slam. The Mets are handing the ball to a debut starter because Clay Holmes’ fibula injury cracked open the rotation. The Nationals are trying to turn their best offensive stretch into a series win. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Nationals vs. Mets prediction, preview

Zach Thornton (LHP) deserves a real scouting note before the rookie-debut volatility takes over the conversation. He earned the call with a 3.16 ERA, 40 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP across 37 Triple-A innings, and the shape is more pitchability than brute force: low-90s fastball, deep mix, slider feel, strike-throwing. That can travel if the nerves are under control. The assignment is still nasty. Washington has hammered left-handed pitching lately, batting .282/.394/.506 with a .900 OPS, four homers, 11 extra-base hits, 15 walks and only 17 strikeouts over its last 104 plate appearances in the split. Across the season, the Nationals’ .794 OPS against lefties sits at the top of the league, so Thornton’s first major-league look comes against a lineup that has been seeing this handedness beautifully.

Washington’s case starts with Wood (OF), who has become the kind of hitter a preview can orbit without forcing the metaphor. He brings 13 homers, seven steals, a .275 ISO, .399 OBP, .534 slugging percentage, .401 wOBA, 157 wRC+ and a walk rate north of 17%, which is a miserable combination for a debut pitcher trying to live on command. CJ Abrams (SS) gives the order a second star with nine homers, seven steals, a .227 ISO, .386 OBP, .523 slugging percentage, .395 wOBA and 153 wRC+. José Tena (IF/DH) is the current-form accelerant: his average exit velocity has climbed to 93.2 mph, his recent 10-day mark was cited at 97.7 mph, and nine of his last 10 hits have gone for extra bases. Add Daylen Lile’s left-handed production and Dylan Crews’ return after a .308 average and .585 slugging percentage at Triple-A, and Washington’s lineup has more than the Wood-Abrams headline.

The Mets have a real run case on the other side, which keeps the full-game total alive even at 10. Zack Littell (RHP) has been punished on contact, allowing 93-plus mph average exit velocity, a hard-hit rate near 50%, a massive expected wOBA mark and a double-digit barrel rate. New York already tagged him for eight runs, four earned, in 3 2/3 innings in late April. Soto (OF/DH) is still the lineup’s cleanest bat with seven homers, a .220 ISO, .389 OBP, .512 slugging percentage, .385 wOBA and 149 wRC+, while Bichette (SS) has three homers in two games and Carson Benge (OF) just extended his hit streak with a three-hit night. New York can score here. The question is price and clarity: the Mets’ lower-half lineup shape is less settled, and their team total is more expensive against a pitcher who may still be bailed out by Washington’s bullpen.

Mets vs. Nationals pick, best bet

That leaves Nationals team total over 4.5 runs at -105 as the best board fit. Full-game over 10 has plenty of logic after 16-7 and 9-6, but it needs clean weather timing and cooperation from both offenses. Mets over 5.5 at +115 is a fun Littell-fade swing, though it asks New York to clear a bigger number with more lineup uncertainty. Mets over 4.5 at -140 is too taxed. F5 over 5.5 can hit if Thornton’s debut nerves and Littell’s contact issues show up immediately, but it loses the late-inning mess that has defined this series. Washington’s team total isolates the cleanest edge: a hot offense against left-handed pitching, Wood and Abrams in star form, Tena’s contact spike, Crews adding depth, and a rookie starter making his first major-league appearance in warm D.C. air.

The danger is Thornton’s command arriving fully formed, with Washington’s lefty-heavy order turning loud contact into harmless fly balls and the weather turning the game choppy. The better read is that the Nationals generate enough traffic to make the Mets solve too many problems over nine innings. This lineup has the patience to force stress, the speed to turn mistakes into extra bases, and the current lefty-split damage to reach five without needing the whole game to become another circus.

Best bet: Nationals team total over 4.5 runs (-105). Playable to -115. Final score projection: Nationals 6, Mets 5.

Best bet: Nationals TT o4.5 runs (-105) vs. Mets

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