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Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s slate: Yordan Alvarez and Elly De La Cruz.
Let’s break them down.
I usually like to be a little more creative in choosing players to back in this market, but I can not ignore Alvarez on this slate. Let’s wait on the BvP numbers, though. You have to earn those.
Alvarez has been an absolute monster to open 2026. Not only are his 11 home runs the third most in the sport, but Alvarez can claim 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.541) and expected slugging (.837), along with a 95th percentile barrel rate (18.8%). Injuries have robbed us all of the “big” Yordan Alvarez season. If he can finally stay on the field, this feels like the year Alvarez flirts with 50 long balls.
Now let’s get to Chris Bassitt. It’s been a very rough start to the campaign for the 37-year-old right-hander, which maybe was to be expected after Bassitt pitched into November last season. As per usual, it’s been opposing LHBs that have been the concern, as the 67 he’s faced in 2026 have combined to slash .377/.478/.623 with a .471 wOBA. Alright, now that that larger precedent has been set, we can talk about Bassitt’s history with Alvarez. In 22 at-bats, the hulking Astros slugger has managed five home runs and a 1.598 OPS. Bassitt knows Alvarez owns him. He’s talked about it in the press. It’s undeniably a thing to factor into your bets tonight.
The fact that Tomoyuki Sugano currently owns a 3.42 ERA is breaking my brain. It just doesn’t make any sense. The 36-year-old is not only throwing softer than he was in his MLB debut last season, but he’s now doing so and playing half his games in Colorado. What is going on? Thankfully, a 6.03 xERA let’s me know I’m not going insane. As does a sixth percentile opponent barrel rate (15.5%). Regression is coming for Sugano. It might even poke its ugly head on Wednesday night with the Rockies on the road. Great American Ball Park isn’t a mile above sea level, but it’s still one of the best parks for hitters in all of baseball.
In other news, Elly De La Cruz appears to be making “the leap” in 2026. The shortstop always had all the tools and talent in the world, yet he’s finally starting to tap into some launch angle magic. De La Cruz’s GB/FB ratio was 1.64 in 2025. This year? It’s only 1.16, and that’s already translated into 10 home runs and a 94th percentile barrel rate (17.5%). Get the ball in the air and great things can happen. That’s the lesson. It also doesn’t hurt that Sugano is right-handed, which will allow Elly to bat from the left-side. I know he’s started to unlock his swing as an RHB, but I feel better with the larger sample against RHPs.
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