For the first time in two decades, the Carolina Hurricanes are back in the Stanley Cup Final. Now, they’re hoping to party like it’s 2006 again — the last time the club hoisted the Cup — at the end of this best-of-seven. Standing in their way are the Vegas Golden Knights, who were hardly contender-caliber during the regular season but turned up the intensity come postseason time. Showing shades of the team that won it all back in 2023, bringing another Cup back to Sin City is certainly within the realm of possibility.

The puck drops tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Here’s a Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Game 1 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Game 1 prediction, preview

It’s been an interesting path to the Stanley Cup Final for both of these franchises. The visiting Golden Knights didn’t even tally 100 points in the regular season but managed to win an extremely weak Pacific Division to secure a somewhat easy path to the Western Conference Final. After downing the Mammoth, a Wild Card team, and an overachieving Ducks squad in round two, Vegas drew an injured Avalanche group and promptly swept them in four games. That outcome was shocking, but a testament to the ability of these Golden Knights to compete with the best.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes drew an even easier path through the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They finished with 113 points to take first place in the Eastern Conference this year and promptly won the first eight games of their postseason run, dispatching the Senators and Flyers in the first two rounds. A matchup with the Canadiens looked tougher on paper, but after dropping the opening contest of the Eastern Conference Final, Carolina responded with an outright dominant four-game winning streak to take the series in a gentleman’s sweep. They’re certainly the better of the two teams in this Cup Final, but will that stand against a worthy competitor?

Here’s how the numbers shake out for these two teams in the postseason. The Hurricanes are averaging 3.23 goals per game, down from their regular-season average, but have deployed the NHL’s best defense while allowing just 1.62 goals per game to opponents. A struggling power play is a big part of the downtick in offensive production since the man advantage is hitting at just a 12.5% rate after ranking first in the league from January 1 onward during the first 82 games, but the overall shot volume remains impressive with a postseason-best 33.7 shots on goal per game. They’ve done well to dominate possession in 5v5 play with a 59.39% CF% (Corsi for; sourced per Natural Stat Trick), though their 30 goals have underperformed a 37.17 xGF mark. The Canes have also underperformed an 11.71% xGF on the power play with just seven goals on the advantage, but the good news is that their penalty kill boasts an incredible 94.3% PK%.

As for the Golden Knights, they’ve fully found their scoring form with 3.63 goals per game this postseason, second most among all teams that made an appearance. That’s a massive stride after the offense was inconsistent during the regular season, but the underlying 5v5 CF% of 47.91% could cause something of an issue if it doesn’t improve in this series. They need more opportunities in possession to keep pace with Carolina, especially since they’ve allowed 29.8 shots on goal per game on the other end. They have performed in line with a 35.31 xGF mark though, so this production is no fluke. Vegas also has a very solid 23.9% PP% with 12 goals and a 12.39 xGF on the man advantage, which should prove crucial. While the defense has been stout with just 2.38 goals allowed per game and an excellent 87.5% PK%, there are concerns that it could be tested more in this series. The Golden Knights have conceded 34 goals in 5v5 with a 35.31 xGA, giving up 29.8 shots on goal per game.

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Hurricanes as -155 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Golden Knights come in as a +130 underdog on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 63% of straight bets on Carolina to win, 56% of wagers on the Canes to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 71% on the total’s over.

This series should prove extremely interesting for a couple of reasons. For starters, there’s the narrative of Carolina making the Cup Final 20 years after the lone championship in franchise history — one which current head coach Rod Brind’Amour experienced as a player on that roster. This club has made four Eastern Conference Finals under his direction but is only just now breaking through for a shot at a title, with the fanbase and everyone in the organization surely hungry to capitalize on the opportunity. While the Hurricanes haven’t been on this stage before, they’ve been battle-tested in the postseason almost as much as Vegas’ veteran-heavy roster, with many key pieces hoisting the Cup just three years ago. It’s unlikely the lights prove too bright for either side.

Outside of the narrative here, look at the numbers. Both offenses have proven capable of scoring and have extremely high ceilings; the defenses have largely performed thus far with one side looking particularly dominant. The goalies on either team are also hot, which is exactly what a Cup-winning roster needs. The Golden Knights’ Carter Hart brings a .924 SV% and 2.22 GAA in this postseason. Hurricanes starter Frederik Andersen has stood on his head with a .931 SV% and 1.41 GAA, also notching three shutouts.

Game 1 is often a feel-out matchup that teams use to gather information. That doesn’t mean they’ll be any less competitive tonight — it’s the Stanley Cup Final, after all — but it could be a close, lower-scoring affair. Carolina’s ability to win the possession battle and generally just overwhelm foes with high shot volume while limiting opponents’ chances may win out here, especially in light of an Eastern Conference Final in which the club outshot the Canadiens 167-89. Being able to create such a disparity in scoring opportunities may prove the difference in the end.

For the moment, though, the under on 5.5 goals feels like the better option as a pick for tonight’s matchup. Both netminders are playing their best hockey and the penalty kills have performing at their ceiling throughout these Stanley Cup Playoffs. For now, we’re fading scoring until proven otherwise.

Best bet: Under 5.5 goals (+102)