Zach Thompson details his best player prop bets for Monday’s NBA Game 4 playoff matchup between the Pistons and Magic.
The NBA gets off to a good start to the work week with three games on Monday night’s scoreboard. The action tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET with Game 4 between the Detroit Pistons and the Orlando Magic at the Kia Center. The Magic have a 2-1 series lead on the top-seeded Pistons, and they’ll try to go up 3-1 before the series heads back to Detroit, while the Pistons try to level the series at 2-2. Let’s get ready for Game 4 with a few of the top player prop bets to consider from this Pistons-Magic matchup.
The Pistons are 2.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total at O/U 215.5 points. In the futures market, the Pistons are -125 favorites to win the series, while the Magic are +125, even though they have a 2-1 lead.
On the injury report for Game 4, Kevin Huerter (hip) is questionable for the Pistons, while Jonathan Isaac (knee) is doubtful for the Magic. Most of the key pieces of the rotations are healthy and ready to roll, so it should be a close, hard-fought Game 4. Let’s look at the matchup and focus on a few Pistons-Magic prop bets that stand out as good plays.
Duren had a huge season for the Pistons and his breakthrough was a big reason for their success. He averaged an impressive 31.5 PRA (points, rebounds and assists), and he helped carry the load while Cade Cunningham was out.
With Cunningham’s return and the Magic’s tough interior defense, Duren’s numbers have been dramatically down in this series. He had 16 PRA in Game 1, 25 PRA in Game 2 and and 18 PRA in Game 3, all well below this prop line.
During the regular season, he had more success against Orlando, finishing with 31, 27, 30 and 36 PRA in his four earlier matchups this season. This mark feels low compared to how well Duren played in the regular season, but the Magic have cranked up the defense against him this series and have been able to keep him in check on offense.
While he has the capability to bounce back with a big bounce-back game, Duren’s difficulty down low makes it more likely that other options step up for Detroit. If the Pistons are able to even the series, it seems more likely that Cunningham would carry the load, since his usage has been much higher than Duren’s.
Bane’s impact on the series has been huge, even though Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are carrying more of the offense. He’s averaging 18.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.7 steals in 35.7 minutes per contest in the series.
On the defensive end, Bane had multiple steals in three straight games before producing just one steal in Game 3. He had multiple steals in three straight against the Pistons before Game 3’s letdown.
Bane also totaled three swipes in Orlando’s win in the Play-In Tournament against the Hornets. He is playing big minutes, and his defensive energy gives him a strong chance at delivering on this plus-money prop on Monday. It’s a high-risk play, but all he needs is a couple of bounces to go his way to pay it off.
After his brother lit up the Lakers on Sunday night to extend the Rockets-Lakers series, Ausar Thompson will look to help the Pistons pick up a win on Monday. Thompson played 37 minutes in Game 3 and chipped in 17 points along with eight rebounds, five blocks, three assists and two steals.
Since he contributed in so many meaningful ways, he should continue to have a huge workload in Game 4. He also had 11 points in Detroit’s Game 2 win, after closing the regular season with 12 points against the Hornets to end up with an average of 9.9 points per game during the regular season.
With more minutes than he normally plays, he has averaged 12 points per game in the postseason. Thompson’s role will be key in Detroit’s attempt to even the series, and he should be able to get at least 11 points in his larger role. With Duren having a hard time, Thompson is one of the Pistons’ best secondary options.
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) for Game 4, adding in Suggs to get at least 15 points boosts the odds up to a spicy +1600 for the four Pistons-Magic bets in this post.
Like many starters in this series, Suggs has played more minutes and had more usage in the postseason than he did in the regular season. He averaged 28 minutes per game and 13.8 points per game in 57 regular-season games, but in his three games in this series, he has averaged 34 points per game and scored 16.7 points per contest. Suggs scored at least 15 points in each of the first three games in the series, with his best scoring output in Game 2 when he had 19 points in the Magic’s blowout loss. He had 15 points in Saturday’s Game 3, as the Magic took back the series lead.
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