Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Ian Happ and Liam Hicks.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s slate: Ian Happ and Liam Hicks.
Let’s break them down.
In general, it’s best to use Ian Happ when the Cubs are facing a right-handed pitcher, as the switch-hitting outfielder has always possessed far more power from the left-side of the plate. That said, he’s never quite sold out for that power as much as he seems to be doing in 2026.
Happ’s 30.9% strikeout rate is reminiscent of his early days in the league, yet the trade-off is clear, as the 31-year-old sports a .235 ISO across his 181 plate appearances, along with a 95th percentile barrel rate (18.3%). He’ll be looking for his 10th long ball of the year on Wednesday in a matchup with JR Ritchie and the Braves. The rookie RHP surrendered a home run on the first pitch he threw in the majors, and that’s continued to be an Achilles heel through the totality of his first three starts. In fact, opposing LHB are averaging 3.09 home runs per nine off the former 35th-overall pick. Look for Happ to take advantage.
Talk about a breakout campaign.
Liam Hicks has been otherworldly to begin the year for the Marlins, as the former Rule 5 pick enters play on Wednesday in possession of a 94th percentile expected batting average (.297) and a 99th percentile whiff rate (9.6%). Now, that combination doesn’t exactly scream “power hitter” to the masses, but Hicks’ nine long balls are over twice as many as any other Miami bat. The left-handed catcher has specifically enjoyed facing right-handed pitching, as Hicks is slashing an eye-popping .316/.377/.592 with a .276 ISO and a 163 wRC+ within the split.
Tonight’s RHP? The floundering Simeon Woods Richardson. SWR has given up at least one home run in seven of his eight outings in 2026, which has translated into conceding a whopping 1.85 opponent home runs per nine. He doesn’t miss bats. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground. He’s the perfect mark for this market.
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