The Detroit Pistons have scrapped their way out of a 3-1 series deficit and will look to complete the comeback against the Orlando Magic tonight. Detroit will host the matchup and look to avoid being the seventh 1 seed to get upset by an 8 seed. They will also be looking to become the 15th team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit and win outright.

The Pistons enter as 8.5-point favorites with -305 moneyline odds for Game 7 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Magic sit as a +245 underdog, with the game total set at 201.5 points.

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Magic at Pistons preview

It was a frustrating regular season for the Magic, who never lived up to their caliber of talent. But the team managed to flip the switch following their play-in loss to the 76ers, putting forth a more competitive effort than seemed possible for most of the season. Orlando finished as the eighth seed across the regular season with a 45-37 overall record. It blew out the Hornets in the second play-in matchup to earn this playoff opportunity, and it has shown some resiliency during it. The Magic have gone 43-47 against the spread, and the game total has gone 46-44 to the over/under on the season overall.

Franz Wagner has been ruled out for the Game 7 matchup due to his calf injury. Wagner has battled injuries all year and was limited to just 34 regular-season games during which he averaged 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Jonathan Isaac is considered doubtful for tonight with a left knee sprain. Paolo Banchero will continue to be looked at to lead the offense after averaging 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game across the regular season. Desmond Bane has stepped up as a leader and floor spacer as designed, adding 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 39.1% on three-point attempts. Anthony Black has enjoyed a breakout season, while the likes of Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Tristan da Silva and Goga Bitadze play key roles as well.

Jamahl Mosley’s squad averages 115.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. It also ranks 19th in offensive rating, 21st in field-goal percentage and 27th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.1 points per game against Orlando, which ranks 13th in the league. The Magic also rank 11th in defensive rating, 19th in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Detroit Pistons looked dominant across the regular season, but their offensive concerns showed face at the wrong time. They finished the regular season with a 66-22 record, leading the Eastern Conference from wire-to-wire. Detroit also went 46-42 against the spread this season, and the game total is 40-48 to the over/under.

Kevin Huerter is the lone player on the injury report, listed as questionable with a left adductor strain. Huerter has missed the past two games after playing just three minutes in Game 4. Cade Cunningham battled a collapsed lung at the tail end of the season but returned for the final three regular-season games and has largely looked like himself in the postseason. The former No. 1 pick leads the Pistons with 23.9 points, 9.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds on the season. Jalen Duren made an All-Star leap alongside him, posting averages of 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on the season, but he has greatly struggled in this series. Daniss Jenkins has been a breakout impact player this year, while Tobias Harris provides veteran leadership to the young roster. Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson and Ron Holland also play notable roles.

Detroit is scoring 117.8 points per game this season, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Pistons also rank 10th in offensive rating, third in field-goal percentage and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 109.6 points per game against the Pistons, which ranks third in the league. J.B. Bickerstaff’s squad also ranks second in defensive rating, third in opponent field-goal percentage and first in opponent three-point percentage.

Series Takeaways

The Pistons opened this series as a -425 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, but the series has proven much closer than the odds suggested.

Orlando leaped out to a 1-0 series lead by producing a 112-101 win in Game 1. The Magic led for 97% of the matchup, stretching the lead to as many as 13 despite shooting just 29% on three-point attempts. Orlando won outright as an 8.5-point underdog and proved capable of matching Detroit’s physicality.

The Pistons got back in the win column in Game 2, in a 98-83 rock fight. Orlando shot just 33% from the field and 25% on three-point attempts, while Detroit connected on 46% of its shot attempts and 23% from the perimeter. The Pistons won the rebounding battle 57-42 and covered the 8.5-point spread.

In Game 3, the Magic got back on top with a 113-105 win. Orlando won the rebounding battle and stretched the lead to as many as 17, leading for 79% of the overall matchup. The Magic won outright as 2.5-point underdogs. In the series, the game total has gone under twice, but it went over in the previous matchup.

It was a defensive battle in Game 4 as well. The Magic secured a 94-88 win and led for 72% of the matchup. Both teams extended a lead to 10 points or greater, and each side shot below 40% from the field and 26% or worse from beyond the arc. Orlando once again proved capable of matching Detroit’s physicality, and the Pistons lacked enough offense down the stretch.

Detroit showed the necessary desperation to remain alive in Game 5, securing a 116-109 win. It got back to its identity, out-rebounding Orlando 49-33, outscoring the Magic 48-36 in the paint, and leading wire-to-wire. Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero went toe-to-toe in a battle between the former number one overall picks, each scoring 45 points. But Cunningham proved to have enough in the tank to lead his team to a victory and extend the series.

Game 6 proved to be the most shocking game of the series. The Magic jumped out to a 24-point lead and took a 60-38 lead into halftime. But things completely flipped in the second half as the Pistons’ defensive intensity returned to its expected level at the same time the Magic’s offensive concerns showed face. Orlando was limited to a stunning 19 points in the second half, including missing 23 consecutive shot attempts, which is the most consecutive missed shots in the play-by-play era. Detroit eventually cruised to a 93-79 win to keep its season alive.

Detroit has largely overwhelmed teams this season with its size and physicality. But the Magic have shown flashes of being capable of matching this and looked like the team they have hoped to be all year. Orlando has changed the way it should be viewed with its play in this series. However, consistency has been near the top of its list of biggest issues all season, and its margin for error further slipped following the back-to-back losses.

Across the series, the Pistons are 2-4 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in four of the six games.

Magic at Pistons Game 7 prediction, best bet

The Magic have been a difficult team to handicap all season. There is a wide gap between when they are at their best and when they are at their worst. Unfortunately for them, their biggest concerns have shown face at the most inopportune time. While Orlando looked like a dead team walking following the play-in loss to the 76ers, it put forth a convincing win over the Hornets to earn the playoff opportunity and has put forth more fight in this series than it felt fair to expect.

Any way you cut it, it feels impossible for the Magic to pick themselves up off the mat following the Game 6 loss. The Magic were 24 game minutes away from advancing to the second round with a 22-point cushion to protect. They then were thoroughly outclassed in every single aspect of basketball for what ended up being a convincing Pistons win.

The two teams will now travel to Detroit for Game 7, where the Pistons went 31-9 straight-up across the regular season and 2-1 in this series. Detroit found its identity again for what has worked all season. Expect a raucous crowd and for the defensive intensity to match the level it showed in Game 6.

Both these teams have concerns with their offensive process that limit their scoring potential. Especially given the weight of this matchup, expect a full-scale effort and for this to be a defensive battle. But when push comes to shove, count on the Pistons having enough offensive production to produce a comfortable victory by more than the 8.5-point spread tonight. It has felt like the Magic were a team hanging on by a thread for the home stretch of the season, and the Pistons found a way to snip this in the previous game. Detroit is the superior team that has addressed its flaws and made adjustments as the series has gone on. Don’t be shocked if this one gets ugly and for the Pistons to cover the spread to punch their ticket to the second round.

Best Bet: Pistons -8.5 (-105)