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The main thing you have to know about this game, scheduled to take place at 1:35 p.m. ET in Boston, is that it’s probably getting delayed. Dare I say, with the Blue Jays returning to Fenway in late July, there might even be a decent chance that this tilt is postponed. Just a lot of rain in the forecast in New England today.
That said, if we do get some baseball this afternoon, Toronto is going for a sweep, after shutting out the Red Sox 3-0 on Wednesday.
Can the Jays bring out the brooms? Will Mother Nature give them the opportunity? Let’s preview this matinee divisional battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
While the Jays are riding high with back-to-back road wins, there’s a surprising amount of pressure on Trey Yesavage on Thursday. The rookie phenom has been battling his control in recent outings, and that’s translated into allowing at least five earned runs in three of his last four appearances. It’s a stretch where opponents are hitting just .208 of the lanky right-hander, yet that’s been enough to do significant damage, as Yesavage has simultaneously walked 17 batters in 22.1 innings of work. Yikes. Adding to the importance of getting back on track this afternoon is the current state of Toronto’s bullpen. With Max Scherzer (back) scratched on Wednesday, the Jays needed to use seven relievers in their shutout victory. That included Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers and Jeff Hoffman, all of whom were also used on Tuesday, meaning none of the trio are available today. Yesavage will need to work deep out of necessity. Hopefully he’ll of earned a lengthy outing, as well.
I mean, if there were ever a matchup to get a pitcher out of a slump, it’s probably this incarnation of the Red Sox. Boston comes into the final game of this series sitting dead-last in MLB in runs scored (279). In yesterday’s loss, the Red Sox also became the first team in 2026 to combine for at least 14 walks and hits in a single contest, yet not register a single run on the scoreboard. Specific to Yesavage, Boston’s general aggressiveness at the plate could help the rookie’s free pass issue. In June, a month where the Red Sox own the second-lowest expected wOBA in MLB (.286), the club sits second in chase rate (36.8%) and third in swing rate (50.1%). Wednesday’s results aside, this is not usually a lineup that is patient enough to take its walks.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find Sonny Gray. This is the last guaranteed season on the 36-year-old hurler’s contract, so you’re about to hear Gray’s name brought up a lot in trade talks — especially with the Red Sox 13 games below .500. Despite diminished fastball velocity, Gray’s surface numbers are quite good so far in 2026. He’s 8-1 with a 3.03 ERA across 62.1 innings. Now, I’m not here to suggest that Gray’s actually been bad or anything, yet I do think it’s fair to assume some regression is on the horizon. Gray’s 4.12 xERA is the highest its been since all the way back in 2018, and that’s primarily due to an unsustainable 80.5% strand rate and an underwhelming 19.9% strikeout rate. That said, Gray doesn’t walk anyone and he limits launch angle with a 77th percentile ground ball rate (48.4%). He’s simply a solid, MLB caliber pitcher at this point in his career.
While Yesavage has been struggling lately, we all know he has the capacity to pitch like an ace. Same goes for Sonny Gray, even if he is due for a little normalization at some point soon. For the season as a whole, these two squads rank 29th and 30th in expected wOBA. I’m just having a hard time seeing where all these runs are coming from.
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